123
FXUS63 KGLD 170831
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
231 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week with
  a marginal risk for severe storms each day through Friday.

- Temperatures remaining near normal through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Upslope flow at the surface in the wake of earlier frontal
passage will advect moisture west into Colorado today.
Convection will initiate by early afternoon in the vicinity of
the Palmer Divide and slowly spread east into the Kansas and
Colorado border area. HREF ensemble mean instability forecast
shows a corridor of modest instability in the same area of up
to 1500 j/kg by mid afternoon. Deep layer shear will be 30-40
kts mainly due to the directional component under northwest flow
aloft. Forcing will be modest at best with a weak perturbation,
somewhat limiting coverage. However, with the favorable
environmental parameters would expect to see at least a marginal
risk for severe storms with the main hazard being wind, but a
few storms may be capable of producing large hail as well. Storm
coverage should peak 00-03z this evening, then slowly decline
afterwards. Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows tonight in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Northwest flow continues Thursday and Friday around the ridge
centered over the Four Corners. Models showing only isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Thursday with
only a weak wave. Appears to be a stronger disturbance aloft on
Friday and models showing considerably more coverage of
thunderstorms. Instability will be somewhat limited, but deep
layer shear more than sufficient to support at least a marginal
risk for severe storms both days. The severe outlook for Friday
may be a bit underdone due to the increased coverage and better
forcing. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Thursday
and lower 90s on Friday, with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Looking at the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, both models do
carry an amplified 500 mb ridge over the western portion of the
country. A trough swings through the northern/central Plains during
this time. Models do differ as to the system forming a meandering
cutoff low or staying as a trough. From previous runs it does look
like consensus for a cutoff low forming in the 500/700 mb range,
meandering slowly over the central Plains.

At the surface, a front will settle south of the CWA going into
Saturday, as a strong ridge works into the northern Plains. The
placement of the ridge will play a key role in amount/chances(20-
40%) for rw/trw potential each day. Areal coverage spans the CWA but
does trend westward due to the surface ridge building south into the
CWA by the beginning of next week.

The result of this will have storms chances peaking late in the
weekend into next Monday, before shifting towards the west. The
caveat for the extended forecast will be the potential for heavy
rainfall. PW values will range from 1-1.5" w/ best numbers in the
east as surface winds shift easterly late in the period.

For temps, looking for highs to start off the upcoming weekend to
range in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, giving way to slightly
cooler numbers on Sunday with upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Going
into next week, conditions begin an upward trend with mainly lower
80s Monday, mid to upper 80s for Tuesday.

Overnight lows will range mainly in the mid to upper 50s this
weekend. A few spots east of Highway 83 will reach the 60F mark.
Next week, a similar setup to this weekend with mid and upper 50s
Monday night, then a range from west to east Tuesday night from the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Warmest along/east of Highway 25.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through early
Wednesday morning before establishing an easterly component at
speeds up to 11kts with a few higher gusts. Convection may be
near/over the terminal after 20z, as a few weather systems move
through from the northwest. Timing and limited coverage prevent
a thunderstorm mention in the taf forecast at this time.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through early
Wednesday morning before establishing an easterly component at
speeds up to 11kts with a few higher gusts. Convection may be
near/over the terminal for a few hours around 23z. Timing,
limited coverage and confidence in any one model solution this
far out in time prevents a thunderstorm mention in the taf
forecast at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99