370
FXUS65 KGGW 142020
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
220 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

KEY MESSAGES:
1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected after 6 PM
into the early overnight on a line from Terry to Zortman
northeastward.

2) A slight cool down and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon
on Monday, followed by increasing temperatures late in the work
week.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A shortwave trough will aid in upward ascent and help bring bulk
shear values upward enough for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms to pop up this evening and move into ND overnight.
Although the timing is uncertain, each CAM agrees there will be
strong storms eventually moving along the northern portion of the
GGW CWA from around 7 PM through 1 AM, with lingering showers
afterward.

Weaker isolated thunderstorms are expected to pop up in the late
afternoon tomorrow as cooler temps move into MT, which will wrap
up by midnight.

The ridge will then build in again by mid week, with a few
locations flirting with triple digits Friday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Low (30 percent) confidence on exactly when thunderstorms will
move through northeast Montana, since CAMs have very little
agreement on timing of initiation. Low to moderate (30 to 50
percent) confidence on location, with southern Saskatchewan being
the most certain initiation point.

High confidence of the ridge intensifying to bring temperatures
back up by Friday into the weekend.

-Stoinskers



&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: 2100Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, isolated IFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected prior to isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms moving into the vicinity of TAF sites
between 01Z and 07Z this evening; storms will be moving
southeastward primarily. Although storms may not directly move
over each site, outflow winds from any of these storms has the
potential for impacts.

SFC WIND: Variable around 6 knots, becoming northwest at 10 to 15
kts after 20Z, becoming northeast after 03Z, becoming light and
variable after 09Z. Gusty, erratic wind will be possible near any
thunderstorm.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow