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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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509 FXUS64 KFWD 160024 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 724 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Surface analysis shows a weak cold front remains draped across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma. As anticipated, widely scattered convection has developed along and ahead of the front this afternoon with very slow storm motions to the east. While we will continue to monitor this activity through the evening, the overall probability of precipitation occurring in our county warning area is still less than 10 percent. For fire crews...gusty/erratic winds and wind shifts associated with outflows and collapsing storms is unlikely to reach our area as the collapsing storms and boundaries remain displaced well to the west and north of the area. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus, the trends discussed in the previous weather discussion below are still valid. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today and Tomorrow/ Although the "Dog Days of Summer" have technically ended, summer heat will remain in full-force through the weekend. A slightly more southwesterly component to the low-level wind field should nudge temperatures a degree or two higher than yesterday. Heat index values will be several degrees higher than the ambient temperature, generally in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Tomorrow`s temperatures will be similar, but with slightly higher moisture. The higher moisture will result in heat index values approaching our Excessive Heat Warning criteria, particularly for North and Northeast Texas. We will at least extend the current configuration of the Heat Advisory through tomorrow, but may upgrade parts of the advisory to a warning after collaborating with neighboring forecast offices. The Texas A&M Forest Service has noted an uptick in wildfire activity across the northwestern quadrant of our forecast area this week. Several hot and dry days have efficiently dried out grasses in this area, resulting in the onset of flash drought for parts of the area west and northwest of the Metroplex in the latest drought update that was issued earlier today. It`s been a while since we`ve had to message/remind folks about wildfires, so please refrain from activities that could start wildfires. There is a 90% chance of *no* precipitation falling in our forecast area the next two days. However, a cold front currently analyzed in Central Oklahoma and West Texas will help develop scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A strong cold pool/outflow boundary will then move toward our far northwestern counties this evening. There is about a 10% chance of this boundary/wind shift or perhaps a short-lived shower or thunderstorm moving into the northwestern edge of our forecast area this evening. Elsewhere, there is a very faintly evident upper low spinning over Central Texas. Meager lapse-rates aloft and limited forced ascent should preclude meaningful precip, but the low-level convective temperature being met supports a < 10% chance of isolated showers developing across Central Texas this afternoon. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ Update: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, and the scorching August heat continues to be the main forecast highlight through next week. An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for Friday which will likely continue through the upcoming weekend as heat index values will climb to 110 to 113 degrees both Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, the combination of very hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity will keep the fire weather threat elevated for areas west of I-35 on a daily basis. Continue to avoid any activities that may start wildfires. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Friday night through Next Thursday/ Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if precautions are not taken. With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period don`t look as oppressive as the next several days. Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in containment. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at the area TAF sites through the current TAF period. The scattered thunderstorms that developed ahead of a cold front over the Texas Panhandle should remain displaced well to the west and north of the TAF terminals. However, we will continue monitoring the convection moving across Central Oklahoma as these storms are more organized and generating numerous outflow boundaries as they push east- southeast. Otherwise, south to southeast winds of 10-15 knots are expected through the period with occasional gusts to 20 knots possible. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 101 81 103 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 78 101 77 102 79 / 0 5 5 0 0 Denton 81 103 79 104 78 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 80 102 79 103 80 / 5 5 0 0 0 Dallas 82 103 81 104 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 79 101 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 101 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 104 76 105 76 / 5 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091-092-100>102- 115>117-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until noon CDT Friday for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123. && $$