973
FXUS64 KFWD 151845
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Although the "Dog Days of Summer" have technically ended, summer
heat will remain in full-force through the weekend. A slightly
more southwesterly component to the low-level wind field should
nudge temperatures a degree or two higher than yesterday. Heat
index values will be several degrees higher than the ambient
temperature, generally in the 105-110 range this afternoon.
Tomorrow`s temperatures will be similar, but with slightly higher
moisture. The higher moisture will result in heat index values
approaching our Excessive Heat Warning criteria, particularly for
North and Northeast Texas. We will at least extend the current
configuration of the Heat Advisory through tomorrow, but may
upgrade parts of the advisory to a warning after collaborating
with neighboring forecast offices.

The Texas A&M Forest Service has noted an uptick in wildfire
activity across the northwestern quadrant of our forecast area
this week. Several hot and dry days have efficiently dried out
grasses in this area, resulting in the onset of flash drought for
parts of the area west and northwest of the Metroplex in the
latest drought update that was issued earlier today. It`s been a
while since we`ve had to message/remind folks about wildfires, so
please refrain from activities that could start wildfires.

There is a 90% chance of *no* precipitation falling in our
forecast area the next two days. However, a cold front currently
analyzed in Central Oklahoma and West Texas will help develop
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A strong cold pool/outflow
boundary will then move toward our far northwestern counties this
evening. There is about a 10% chance of this boundary/wind shift
or perhaps a short-lived shower or thunderstorm moving into the
northwestern edge of our forecast area this evening. Elsewhere,
there is a very faintly evident upper low spinning over Central
Texas. Meager lapse-rates aloft and limited forced ascent should
preclude meaningful precip, but the low-level convective
temperature being met supports a < 10% chance of isolated showers
developing across Central Texas this afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 159 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/
/Friday night through Next Thursday/

Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least
early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat
index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest
temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level
ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North
and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat
indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western
north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These
dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if
precautions are not taken.

With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent
opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond
that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the
ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a
door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late
week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We
will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow
down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the
temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period
don`t look as oppressive as the next several days.

Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this
weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones
where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should
remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in
containment.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period.

While low probability, there`s a couple things we`ll be
monitoring this afternoon and evening. First is the forecast
thunderstorm activity, and any associated outflow boundaries, over
Oklahoma and western North Texas this evening and tonight.
Elsewhere, there`s a 10% chance of isolated popup showers across
Central Texas and the Glen Rose cornerpost, but these should be
very isolated and short-lived. Neither of these are expected to
impact our TAF terminals, so one-line VFR TAFs continue.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 101  82 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris              101  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Denton             101  80 103  79 104 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney           102  81 102  80 103 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas             102  82 103  82 104 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             98  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           99  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      104  78 104  77 105 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$