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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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973 FXUS64 KFWD 151845 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Although the "Dog Days of Summer" have technically ended, summer heat will remain in full-force through the weekend. A slightly more southwesterly component to the low-level wind field should nudge temperatures a degree or two higher than yesterday. Heat index values will be several degrees higher than the ambient temperature, generally in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Tomorrow`s temperatures will be similar, but with slightly higher moisture. The higher moisture will result in heat index values approaching our Excessive Heat Warning criteria, particularly for North and Northeast Texas. We will at least extend the current configuration of the Heat Advisory through tomorrow, but may upgrade parts of the advisory to a warning after collaborating with neighboring forecast offices. The Texas A&M Forest Service has noted an uptick in wildfire activity across the northwestern quadrant of our forecast area this week. Several hot and dry days have efficiently dried out grasses in this area, resulting in the onset of flash drought for parts of the area west and northwest of the Metroplex in the latest drought update that was issued earlier today. It`s been a while since we`ve had to message/remind folks about wildfires, so please refrain from activities that could start wildfires. There is a 90% chance of *no* precipitation falling in our forecast area the next two days. However, a cold front currently analyzed in Central Oklahoma and West Texas will help develop scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A strong cold pool/outflow boundary will then move toward our far northwestern counties this evening. There is about a 10% chance of this boundary/wind shift or perhaps a short-lived shower or thunderstorm moving into the northwestern edge of our forecast area this evening. Elsewhere, there is a very faintly evident upper low spinning over Central Texas. Meager lapse-rates aloft and limited forced ascent should preclude meaningful precip, but the low-level convective temperature being met supports a < 10% chance of isolated showers developing across Central Texas this afternoon. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 159 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ /Friday night through Next Thursday/ Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if precautions are not taken. With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period don`t look as oppressive as the next several days. Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in containment. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period. While low probability, there`s a couple things we`ll be monitoring this afternoon and evening. First is the forecast thunderstorm activity, and any associated outflow boundaries, over Oklahoma and western North Texas this evening and tonight. Elsewhere, there`s a 10% chance of isolated popup showers across Central Texas and the Glen Rose cornerpost, but these should be very isolated and short-lived. Neither of these are expected to impact our TAF terminals, so one-line VFR TAFs continue. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 101 82 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 101 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Denton 101 80 103 79 104 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 102 81 102 80 103 / 0 5 5 0 0 Dallas 102 82 103 82 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 98 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 104 78 104 77 105 / 5 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$