509
FXUS64 KFWD 160024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
724 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Surface analysis shows a weak cold front remains draped across the
northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma. As
anticipated, widely scattered convection has developed along and
ahead of the front this afternoon with very slow storm motions to
the east. While we will continue to monitor this activity through
the evening, the overall probability of precipitation occurring in
our county warning area is still less than 10 percent. For fire
crews...gusty/erratic winds and wind shifts associated with
outflows and collapsing storms is unlikely to reach our area as
the collapsing storms and boundaries remain displaced well to the
west and north of the area. No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast, thus, the trends discussed in the previous
weather discussion below are still valid.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

Although the "Dog Days of Summer" have technically ended, summer
heat will remain in full-force through the weekend. A slightly
more southwesterly component to the low-level wind field should
nudge temperatures a degree or two higher than yesterday. Heat
index values will be several degrees higher than the ambient
temperature, generally in the 105-110 range this afternoon.
Tomorrow`s temperatures will be similar, but with slightly higher
moisture. The higher moisture will result in heat index values
approaching our Excessive Heat Warning criteria, particularly for
North and Northeast Texas. We will at least extend the current
configuration of the Heat Advisory through tomorrow, but may
upgrade parts of the advisory to a warning after collaborating
with neighboring forecast offices.

The Texas A&M Forest Service has noted an uptick in wildfire
activity across the northwestern quadrant of our forecast area
this week. Several hot and dry days have efficiently dried out
grasses in this area, resulting in the onset of flash drought for
parts of the area west and northwest of the Metroplex in the
latest drought update that was issued earlier today. It`s been a
while since we`ve had to message/remind folks about wildfires, so
please refrain from activities that could start wildfires.

There is a 90% chance of *no* precipitation falling in our
forecast area the next two days. However, a cold front currently
analyzed in Central Oklahoma and West Texas will help develop
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A strong cold pool/outflow
boundary will then move toward our far northwestern counties this
evening. There is about a 10% chance of this boundary/wind shift
or perhaps a short-lived shower or thunderstorm moving into the
northwestern edge of our forecast area this evening. Elsewhere,
there is a very faintly evident upper low spinning over Central
Texas. Meager lapse-rates aloft and limited forced ascent should
preclude meaningful precip, but the low-level convective
temperature being met supports a < 10% chance of isolated showers
developing across Central Texas this afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, and the
scorching August heat continues to be the main forecast highlight
through next week. An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for
Friday which will likely continue through the upcoming weekend as
heat index values will climb to 110 to 113 degrees both Saturday
and Sunday. Additionally, the combination of very hot temperatures
and low afternoon humidity will keep the fire weather threat
elevated for areas west of I-35 on a daily basis. Continue to
avoid any activities that may start wildfires.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Friday night through Next Thursday/

Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least
early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat
index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest
temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level
ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North
and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat
indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western
north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These
dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if
precautions are not taken.

With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent
opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond
that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the
ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a
door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late
week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We
will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow
down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the
temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period
don`t look as oppressive as the next several days.

Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this
weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones
where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should
remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in
containment.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at the area TAF
sites through the current TAF period. The scattered thunderstorms
that developed ahead of a cold front over the Texas Panhandle
should remain displaced well to the west and north of the TAF
terminals. However, we will continue monitoring the convection
moving across Central Oklahoma as these storms are more organized
and generating numerous outflow boundaries as they push east-
southeast. Otherwise, south to southeast winds of 10-15 knots are
expected through the period with occasional gusts to 20 knots
possible.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 101  81 103  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78 101  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               78 101  77 102  79 /   0   5   5   0   0
Denton              81 103  79 104  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            80 102  79 103  80 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              82 103  81 104  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79 101  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79 101  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77 101  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77 104  76 105  76 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT Friday for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123.

&&

$$