Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
297 FXUS64 KFWD 021500 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms (20-30%) will continue across western North and Central Texas today. - Low storm chances (20-40%) continue Thursday and Friday, mainly for areas near/west of U.S. 281. - Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 108 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025/ /Today through Thursday/ Light showers continue this evening primarily across the Big Country, with a mostly quiet night underway. Winds have become light and variable beneath broken mid and high cloud cover across North and Central Texas, with temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 70s this morning. Subtropical ridging will maintain itself to the south and east, while a meandering mid/upper level low is positioned near the West Coast. In between the two, a plume of rich moisture advecting northward and mid level troughing will set the stage for additional scattered showers and a few storms to develop Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night. Most of this activity will be favored farther west, but western North and Central Texas can expect to see around 20-30% coverage mainly near and west of U.S. 281, while the eastern portion of the forecast area remains more subsident. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be the primary threats with any storms that develop. On Thursday, slightly better rain chances will exist, with 20% PoPs spreading as far east as the I-35 corridor. This is due to the slow eastward progression of the mid/upper level low and more widespread, (albeit weak) ascent being able to set up over the area as well as the plume of moisture becoming concentrated over the Big Country and into North TX. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms once again with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /Issued 108 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Similar rain chances will continue Thursday night into Friday as the upper level low slowly approaches and PWAT values become maximized across the Big Country/North TX as better moisture advects into the area (guidance depicting > 2", greater than climatological 90th Percentile). Friday`s chances will be greatest once again in the Big Country and for areas to the north and west of the Metroplex as the upper trough lifts northward through the Plains. If you have outdoor plans for July 4th during the day and are generally near/west of I-35, do stay weather aware (especially if you plan on being on any lakes). Coverage should remain low, however, with most locations staying dry on Friday. The weekend and into early next week should then be mostly rain- free and a bit warmer as ridging is able to get a stronger foothold. Temperatures will be seasonably warm through the first week of July with highs in the mid 90s each day Saturday onward. Looking at the 8-14 Day Outlook, more potent subsidence may set up, favoring above normal temperatures. This would be the next real shot at our first 100 degree day of the year heading into mid-July, and has also necessitated CPC outlining a slight risk for extreme heat from 7/9-7/12 mainly due to the potential for triple digit heat indices. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ Update: Latest model guidance is showing slightly better chances for convection along parts of the I-35 corridor this afternoon, enough to include a mention of VCSH in the scheduled 15Z TAF amendments. Instability looks too meager to include a TS mention, but there is a non-zero chance for an isolated thunderstorm to impact a terminal. For the Metroplex airports, there is some guidance that turns the winds to a more northerly direction this afternoon, but still at speeds less than 7 kts. It`s more likely the wind direction will be variable at times and will prevail an east wind in the TAF later this afternoon. JLDunn Previous Discussion: /12Z TAFs/ VFR prevails through the period with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds overhead. Light winds this morning will become more E/SE today around 5 to 8 kts in speed. Latest guidance still depicts the bulk of any showers or storms to be west/northwest of the TAF sites, but cannot rule out entirely a stray shower or storm impacting a site this afternoon (10-20% chance). Otherwise, there is a low probability for MVFR (~20%) around/after 12Z tomorrow morning with additional chances for scattered showers and potentially a few storms. Given low confidence, will opt to monitor trends and include in later issuance if needed. Gordon && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 90 76 91 / 20 10 10 10 10 Waco 94 75 91 74 91 / 20 5 20 10 10 Paris 91 74 89 73 90 / 20 5 5 5 10 Denton 93 74 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 10 10 McKinney 92 75 90 75 91 / 20 10 10 10 10 Dallas 94 77 91 76 92 / 20 5 10 10 10 Terrell 93 75 91 74 92 / 10 5 10 10 10 Corsicana 96 76 93 75 93 / 10 5 10 10 5 Temple 95 74 91 73 93 / 20 10 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 91 73 88 73 91 / 40 20 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$