925
FXUS64 KFWD 091901
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
201 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 141 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024/
/Through Saturday/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across North
Texas near a weak cold front. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity will shift into Central Texas as the front continues
moving south. A healthy Cu field exists generally near/west of
I-35 and south of I-20, which is where we`re beginning to see a
few showers develop near the front. Given these areas have
experienced significantly greater surface heating than North
Texas, a more prominent T/Td spread will result in an increased
potential for gusty winds in any Central Texas storms through the
afternoon. Otherwise, the main threats will continue to be
lightning and heavy rain. Weak steering winds aloft and PW values
near or in excess of 2" will result in efficient rainfall rates
and rather quick ponding on roadways, especially where any cell
training occurs. Ensure you drive with caution if you encounter
any showers and storms on the road today.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish this
evening, and we should remain rain-free through the overnight
period. With the ridge axis off to our west, we will be situated
beneath west/northwest flow aloft as we head into Saturday. An
embedded shortwave will likely kick off a complex of storms near
the TX/OK Panhandles late tonight, which would approach western
North Texas Saturday morning if it maintains organization and
intensity. As is typically the case with this set up, models are
handling its evolution quite poorly. For now, we`ll maintain
20-30% PoPs throughout the morning for portions of the region.
Low storm chances will linger into Saturday afternoon, but any
additional development will be isolated.

Aside from the storm chances, a welcomed relief from the triple
digit heat is expected both today and tomorrow for most
locations. High temperatures were lowered from the NBM across
North Texas given the extensive cloud cover and presence of
showers/storms. Despite this, there`s still pretty significant
bust potential for today`s MaxT, but this will largely depend on
how much clearing we see through the remainder of the afternoon.
Unfortunately, hot and humid conditions are expected across
Central Texas where a Heat Advisory remains in effect for heat
index values near 105 to 107 degrees. Temperatures will remain
below 100 degrees areawide on Saturday, but heat index values will
likely reach 100-104 degrees for many locations.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Late Weekend Through Next Week/

With the flattened mid/upper level subtropical ridge centered
over central Texas and an upper low moving slowly eastward across
southeastern Canada, the flow aloft will still be west-
northwesterly through late weekend. Another ridge topping
perturbation/shortwave embedded in this flow pattern will again
support convective initiation over the higher terrain of the Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening. As this activity progresses east and
south across Oklahoma overnight, there is a slight chance (20
percent or less) of convection sliding along/south of the Red
River into adjacent areas of North Texas Sunday morning before
dissipating.

Even if an outflow boundary were to push south across our area,
it is unlikely that this would lead to additional thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon as subsidence beneath the prevailing
upper-level ridge should work to effectively suppress convection.
The clouds left behind by this morning convection should gradually
break up and clear through the early afternoon giving way to
several hours of heating. In many areas, highs will be as much as
3-5 degrees warmer than we will see on Saturday with temperatures
ranging from the low/mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in the
west. If clouds clear quicker than currently anticipated then
temperatures may manage to notch a few degrees higher than
forecast.

With the central U.S. ridge becoming bookended by upper troughing
over the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, oppressive summer heat
is set to return next week. The upper level ridge will build
northeastward across the Plains while surface high pressure
shuffles to the east, re-establishing southerly flow and bringing
a quick return to triple digit heat. Heat headlines are likely to
return early next week with hot ambient temperatures and heat
index values peaking between 105 and 110 degrees. A pattern change
looks to occur by the end of next week and into next weekend as
the ridge finally pushes eastward. Only time will tell if this
brings us a break from the oppressive triple digit heat.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 535 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024/
/12z TAFs/

VFR conditions with light northerly winds around 10 knots or less
will continue through much of the day, with occasional
variability in direction. Ongoing convection in southern Oklahoma
should remain well to the north of the D10 terminals, but there
could be brief impacts to the Bowie and Bonham arrival gates.

Better rain chances remain across Central Texas where VCTS was
added between 22-01z this evening for ACT, with any activity
clearing and pushing to the south after sunset. There is a low
chance for another round of showers and storms on Saturday, but
confidence regarding coverage and timing remains quite low.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  78  97  80 /   5  20   5   5   0
Waco                76  97  76  99  77 /  20  20   0   5   0
Paris               73  91  71  89  73 /   5  10   5  20   0
Denton              73  96  75  98  77 /  10  20   5  10   0
McKinney            75  96  75  97  78 /   5  20   5  10   0
Dallas              79  97  78  98  80 /   5  20   5   5   0
Terrell             75  95  75  96  76 /   5  10   0   5   0
Corsicana           76  97  76  99  77 /   5  10   0   5   0
Temple              75  98  76 100  76 /  20  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  97  75 101  77 /  10  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ156>162-174-175.

&&

$$