115
FXUS64 KFWD 092305
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Sub-severe convection is beginning to wind down across Central
Texas as of 6 PM after bringing a fortunate few as much as 1-2" of
rainfall along with a break from early August heat. Most of this
activity will dissipate and/or move southwest of the CWA over the
next couple of hours with a quieter overnight period expected.
There will be a couple more opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms within the next 24 hours which are already addressed
in the short term forecast below, primarily in the form of an
overnight/early morning complex perhaps clipping parts of North
Texas. There is also a chance that isolated redevelopment may
occur west of I-35 tomorrow afternoon in the vicinity of the
stalled frontal zone where weak low-level convergence may remain,
although this feature is likely to become further washed out late
in the day. While a few spots could touch Heat Advisory criteria
with a 105 heat index in Central Texas, these occurrences are
presently expected to be scant enough such that no headlines are
planned. The existing Heat Advisory for parts of Central Texas
will be allowed to expire on time at 9 PM this evening.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across North
Texas near a weak cold front. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity will shift into Central Texas as the front continues
moving south. A healthy Cu field exists generally near/west of
I-35 and south of I-20, which is where we`re beginning to see a
few showers develop near the front. Given these areas have
experienced significantly greater surface heating than North
Texas, a more prominent T/Td spread will result in an increased
potential for gusty winds in any Central Texas storms through the
afternoon. Otherwise, the main threats will continue to be
lightning and heavy rain. Weak steering winds aloft and PW values
near or in excess of 2" will result in efficient rainfall rates
and rather quick ponding on roadways, especially where any cell
training occurs. Ensure you drive with caution if you encounter
any showers and storms on the road today.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish this
evening, and we should remain rain-free through the overnight
period. With the ridge axis off to our west, we will be situated
beneath west/northwest flow aloft as we head into Saturday. An
embedded shortwave will likely kick off a complex of storms near
the TX/OK Panhandles late tonight, which would approach western
North Texas Saturday morning if it maintains organization and
intensity. As is typically the case with this set up, models are
handling its evolution quite poorly. For now, we`ll maintain
20-30% PoPs throughout the morning for portions of the region.
Low storm chances will linger into Saturday afternoon, but any
additional development will be isolated.

Aside from the storm chances, a welcomed relief from the triple
digit heat is expected both today and tomorrow for most
locations. High temperatures were lowered from the NBM across
North Texas given the extensive cloud cover and presence of
showers/storms. Despite this, there`s still pretty significant
bust potential for today`s MaxT, but this will largely depend on
how much clearing we see through the remainder of the afternoon.
Unfortunately, hot and humid conditions are expected across
Central Texas where a Heat Advisory remains in effect for heat
index values near 105 to 107 degrees. Temperatures will remain
below 100 degrees areawide on Saturday, but heat index values will
likely reach 100-104 degrees for many locations.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024/
/Late Weekend Through Next Week/

With the flattened mid/upper level subtropical ridge centered
over central Texas and an upper low moving slowly eastward across
southeastern Canada, the flow aloft will still be west-
northwesterly through late weekend. Another ridge topping
perturbation/shortwave embedded in this flow pattern will again
support convective initiation over the higher terrain of the Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening. As this activity progresses east and
south across Oklahoma overnight, there is a slight chance (20
percent or less) of convection sliding along/south of the Red
River into adjacent areas of North Texas Sunday morning before
dissipating.

Even if an outflow boundary were to push south across our area,
it is unlikely that this would lead to additional thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon as subsidence beneath the prevailing
upper-level ridge should work to effectively suppress convection.
The clouds left behind by this morning convection should gradually
break up and clear through the early afternoon giving way to
several hours of heating. In many areas, highs will be as much as
3-5 degrees warmer than we will see on Saturday with temperatures
ranging from the low/mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in the
west. If clouds clear quicker than currently anticipated then
temperatures may manage to notch a few degrees higher than
forecast.

With the central U.S. ridge becoming bookended by upper troughing
over the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, oppressive summer heat
is set to return next week. The upper level ridge will build
northeastward across the Plains while surface high pressure
shuffles to the east, re-establishing southerly flow and bringing
a quick return to triple digit heat. Heat headlines are likely to
return early next week with hot ambient temperatures and heat
index values peaking between 105 and 110 degrees. A pattern change
looks to occur by the end of next week and into next weekend as
the ridge finally pushes eastward. Only time will tell if this
brings us a break from the oppressive triple digit heat.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Thunderstorm activity cleared D10 to the south earlier this
afternoon, and is also exiting the Waco TAF site as of 23z.
Northeast winds prevail behind this activity and the
corresponding frontal passage, and VFR with light NE winds will be
the prevailing conditions overnight into tomorrow morning before
a gradual return to SE winds after daybreak. A thunderstorm
complex may traverse portions of Oklahoma and North Texas
overnight into Saturday morning, although this activity would
likely remain north of the D10 airports. There is a slim chance
that associated mid-level ascent may contribute to high-based
shower activity near the DFW area terminals later in the
morning, and VCSH will be introduced to account for this
potential. Additional isolated convective development is possible
mainly west of the TAF sites during the afternoon, but the
chance for this to impact the airports is presently too low to
introduce to the TAFs.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  96  78  99  80 /  10  20   5   5   0
Waco                77  97  76  99  76 /  20  20   0   0   0
Paris               75  91  73  92  73 /  10  10   5  20   5
Denton              73  96  75  99  77 /  10  20   5   5   0
McKinney            75  95  75  98  78 /  10  10   5   5   0
Dallas              78  97  78  99  80 /  10  10   5   5   0
Terrell             75  95  74  96  76 /   5  10   0   5   0
Corsicana           77  96  77  99  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
Temple              76  98  75 100  76 /  30  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  97  75 101  76 /  20  30  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ156>162-174-175.

&&

$$