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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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115 FXUS64 KFWD 092305 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 605 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Sub-severe convection is beginning to wind down across Central Texas as of 6 PM after bringing a fortunate few as much as 1-2" of rainfall along with a break from early August heat. Most of this activity will dissipate and/or move southwest of the CWA over the next couple of hours with a quieter overnight period expected. There will be a couple more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms within the next 24 hours which are already addressed in the short term forecast below, primarily in the form of an overnight/early morning complex perhaps clipping parts of North Texas. There is also a chance that isolated redevelopment may occur west of I-35 tomorrow afternoon in the vicinity of the stalled frontal zone where weak low-level convergence may remain, although this feature is likely to become further washed out late in the day. While a few spots could touch Heat Advisory criteria with a 105 heat index in Central Texas, these occurrences are presently expected to be scant enough such that no headlines are planned. The existing Heat Advisory for parts of Central Texas will be allowed to expire on time at 9 PM this evening. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across North Texas near a weak cold front. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will shift into Central Texas as the front continues moving south. A healthy Cu field exists generally near/west of I-35 and south of I-20, which is where we`re beginning to see a few showers develop near the front. Given these areas have experienced significantly greater surface heating than North Texas, a more prominent T/Td spread will result in an increased potential for gusty winds in any Central Texas storms through the afternoon. Otherwise, the main threats will continue to be lightning and heavy rain. Weak steering winds aloft and PW values near or in excess of 2" will result in efficient rainfall rates and rather quick ponding on roadways, especially where any cell training occurs. Ensure you drive with caution if you encounter any showers and storms on the road today. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish this evening, and we should remain rain-free through the overnight period. With the ridge axis off to our west, we will be situated beneath west/northwest flow aloft as we head into Saturday. An embedded shortwave will likely kick off a complex of storms near the TX/OK Panhandles late tonight, which would approach western North Texas Saturday morning if it maintains organization and intensity. As is typically the case with this set up, models are handling its evolution quite poorly. For now, we`ll maintain 20-30% PoPs throughout the morning for portions of the region. Low storm chances will linger into Saturday afternoon, but any additional development will be isolated. Aside from the storm chances, a welcomed relief from the triple digit heat is expected both today and tomorrow for most locations. High temperatures were lowered from the NBM across North Texas given the extensive cloud cover and presence of showers/storms. Despite this, there`s still pretty significant bust potential for today`s MaxT, but this will largely depend on how much clearing we see through the remainder of the afternoon. Unfortunately, hot and humid conditions are expected across Central Texas where a Heat Advisory remains in effect for heat index values near 105 to 107 degrees. Temperatures will remain below 100 degrees areawide on Saturday, but heat index values will likely reach 100-104 degrees for many locations. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024/ /Late Weekend Through Next Week/ With the flattened mid/upper level subtropical ridge centered over central Texas and an upper low moving slowly eastward across southeastern Canada, the flow aloft will still be west- northwesterly through late weekend. Another ridge topping perturbation/shortwave embedded in this flow pattern will again support convective initiation over the higher terrain of the Texas Panhandle Saturday evening. As this activity progresses east and south across Oklahoma overnight, there is a slight chance (20 percent or less) of convection sliding along/south of the Red River into adjacent areas of North Texas Sunday morning before dissipating. Even if an outflow boundary were to push south across our area, it is unlikely that this would lead to additional thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon as subsidence beneath the prevailing upper-level ridge should work to effectively suppress convection. The clouds left behind by this morning convection should gradually break up and clear through the early afternoon giving way to several hours of heating. In many areas, highs will be as much as 3-5 degrees warmer than we will see on Saturday with temperatures ranging from the low/mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in the west. If clouds clear quicker than currently anticipated then temperatures may manage to notch a few degrees higher than forecast. With the central U.S. ridge becoming bookended by upper troughing over the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, oppressive summer heat is set to return next week. The upper level ridge will build northeastward across the Plains while surface high pressure shuffles to the east, re-establishing southerly flow and bringing a quick return to triple digit heat. Heat headlines are likely to return early next week with hot ambient temperatures and heat index values peaking between 105 and 110 degrees. A pattern change looks to occur by the end of next week and into next weekend as the ridge finally pushes eastward. Only time will tell if this brings us a break from the oppressive triple digit heat. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Thunderstorm activity cleared D10 to the south earlier this afternoon, and is also exiting the Waco TAF site as of 23z. Northeast winds prevail behind this activity and the corresponding frontal passage, and VFR with light NE winds will be the prevailing conditions overnight into tomorrow morning before a gradual return to SE winds after daybreak. A thunderstorm complex may traverse portions of Oklahoma and North Texas overnight into Saturday morning, although this activity would likely remain north of the D10 airports. There is a slim chance that associated mid-level ascent may contribute to high-based shower activity near the DFW area terminals later in the morning, and VCSH will be introduced to account for this potential. Additional isolated convective development is possible mainly west of the TAF sites during the afternoon, but the chance for this to impact the airports is presently too low to introduce to the TAFs. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 96 78 99 80 / 10 20 5 5 0 Waco 77 97 76 99 76 / 20 20 0 0 0 Paris 75 91 73 92 73 / 10 10 5 20 5 Denton 73 96 75 99 77 / 10 20 5 5 0 McKinney 75 95 75 98 78 / 10 10 5 5 0 Dallas 78 97 78 99 80 / 10 10 5 5 0 Terrell 75 95 74 96 76 / 5 10 0 5 0 Corsicana 77 96 77 99 77 / 10 10 0 0 0 Temple 76 98 75 100 76 / 30 20 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 97 75 101 76 / 20 30 10 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ156>162-174-175. && $$