238
FXUS64 KFWD 111705
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across
Oklahoma at this hour with the southern fringes now spreading
across the Red River into parts of our northeastern counties.
Despite a fairly strong instability axis farther south and west,
weakening low level inflow into this activity should limit the
overall southward extent and we`ll keep PoPs confined to our far
northern counties through mid afternoon. Late this afternoon,
we`ll have to watch for at least isolated thunderstorm development
across our far western counties where the aforementioned
instability axis will be in place. A tightening theta-e gradient
will develop in the wake of the complex to the northeast and
should result in a zone of low level convergence this afternoon
across the western half of the CWA. This is already reflected in
the latest RAP objective analysis, although no notable cumulus
have developed as of yet. Steepening mid level lapse rates through
the afternoon and a persistent, yet weak band of low level warm
advection could be sufficient for an isolated storm to develop.
Any storm that may develop could produce strong downburst winds,
although we`ll maintain PoPs less than 20% at this time given a
lack of more appreciable forcing. Any convection that develops
would quickly diminish this evening with a mostly clear night
expected and low temperatures in the upper 70s.

Another hot day is expected on Monday with high temperatures near
100 and heat indices approaching 105 degrees. The mid level ridge
will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation
chances near zero. While a few spots could reach heat advisory
criteria, we`ll hold off on any issuance at this time given more
humid conditions are expected to arrive later this week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/
/Monday through Next Weekend/

For Monday, latest guidance continue to depict another complex of
storms over central/southern Oklahoma, which may approach some of
our Red River counties during the morning hours. Still, our
confidence remains that most of the activity (if it develops)
should stay north of our area. We won`t introduce any PoPs at
this time, but it will be worth monitoring. Otherwise, the summer
heat will be in full swing as the center of an upper ridge moves
back over the region.

As advertised over the last several days, the intense heat will
be the main story over much of the upcoming week. Above normal
temperatures with little to no precipitation for much of North and
Central Texas. Many locations will likely reach or cross the
century mark by midweek. These temperatures along with dewpoints
in the 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices in the
102-110 range. Heat headlines will likely continue through much
of the week.

Our only hope for some rain and perhaps a little bit of relief
from the heat will arrive late in the week. A weakness in the
ridge may open the door for a disturbance to move south into the
southern Plains late Thursday or Friday. While there`s still
plenty of differences between guidance, the NBM is starting to
pick up this signal and bring at least 20% PoPs for portions of
the region, but still keeping us with the hot temperatures!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south flow around 10 kt.
A complex of showers and storms will stay to the north of the
major airports this afternoon although will impact the Bonham
cornerpost. Otherwise, we`ll keep an eye on a low potential for
isolated storms this afternoon back to the west of the D10
airspace. No other significant aviation concerns are expected.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78 100  79 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  78  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               90  73  98  76  98 /  40   5   5   0   0
Denton              98  78 101  78 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            96  77 100  79 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Dallas              97  79 100  79 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             95  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  77  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              98  76  98  76  99 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells      100  76 101  76 101 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$