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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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238 FXUS64 KFWD 111705 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across Oklahoma at this hour with the southern fringes now spreading across the Red River into parts of our northeastern counties. Despite a fairly strong instability axis farther south and west, weakening low level inflow into this activity should limit the overall southward extent and we`ll keep PoPs confined to our far northern counties through mid afternoon. Late this afternoon, we`ll have to watch for at least isolated thunderstorm development across our far western counties where the aforementioned instability axis will be in place. A tightening theta-e gradient will develop in the wake of the complex to the northeast and should result in a zone of low level convergence this afternoon across the western half of the CWA. This is already reflected in the latest RAP objective analysis, although no notable cumulus have developed as of yet. Steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon and a persistent, yet weak band of low level warm advection could be sufficient for an isolated storm to develop. Any storm that may develop could produce strong downburst winds, although we`ll maintain PoPs less than 20% at this time given a lack of more appreciable forcing. Any convection that develops would quickly diminish this evening with a mostly clear night expected and low temperatures in the upper 70s. Another hot day is expected on Monday with high temperatures near 100 and heat indices approaching 105 degrees. The mid level ridge will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation chances near zero. While a few spots could reach heat advisory criteria, we`ll hold off on any issuance at this time given more humid conditions are expected to arrive later this week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 229 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ /Monday through Next Weekend/ For Monday, latest guidance continue to depict another complex of storms over central/southern Oklahoma, which may approach some of our Red River counties during the morning hours. Still, our confidence remains that most of the activity (if it develops) should stay north of our area. We won`t introduce any PoPs at this time, but it will be worth monitoring. Otherwise, the summer heat will be in full swing as the center of an upper ridge moves back over the region. As advertised over the last several days, the intense heat will be the main story over much of the upcoming week. Above normal temperatures with little to no precipitation for much of North and Central Texas. Many locations will likely reach or cross the century mark by midweek. These temperatures along with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices in the 102-110 range. Heat headlines will likely continue through much of the week. Our only hope for some rain and perhaps a little bit of relief from the heat will arrive late in the week. A weakness in the ridge may open the door for a disturbance to move south into the southern Plains late Thursday or Friday. While there`s still plenty of differences between guidance, the NBM is starting to pick up this signal and bring at least 20% PoPs for portions of the region, but still keeping us with the hot temperatures! Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with south flow around 10 kt. A complex of showers and storms will stay to the north of the major airports this afternoon although will impact the Bonham cornerpost. Otherwise, we`ll keep an eye on a low potential for isolated storms this afternoon back to the west of the D10 airspace. No other significant aviation concerns are expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 78 100 79 100 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 78 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 90 73 98 76 98 / 40 5 5 0 0 Denton 98 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 96 77 100 79 100 / 10 5 5 0 0 Dallas 97 79 100 79 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 95 77 99 77 99 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 97 77 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 98 76 98 76 99 / 0 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 100 76 101 76 101 / 10 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$