356
FXUS64 KFWD 112354
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
654 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An outflow boundary from Oklahoma convection earlier in the day
remained inactive despite a couple of meager updraft attempts
during peak heating. A quiet overnight period is expected with
lows falling into the upper 70s, although urban areas may hold
near 80. Additional convection is likely to occur north of the Red
River overnight into tomorrow morning, but it is rather unlikely
any leftover shower or thunderstorm activity would spread
southward into North Texas, thus no PoPs will be carried through
the short term period. Subsequent forecast issuances will evaluate
whether a Heat Advisory will be necessary to begin the workweek.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across
Oklahoma at this hour with the southern fringes now spreading
across the Red River into parts of our northeastern counties.
Despite a fairly strong instability axis farther south and west,
weakening low level inflow into this activity should limit the
overall southward extent and we`ll keep PoPs confined to our far
northern counties through mid afternoon. Late this afternoon,
we`ll have to watch for at least isolated thunderstorm development
across our far western counties where the aforementioned
instability axis will be in place. A tightening theta-e gradient
will develop in the wake of the complex to the northeast and
should result in a zone of low level convergence this afternoon
across the western half of the CWA. This is already reflected in
the latest RAP objective analysis, although no notable cumulus
have developed as of yet. Steepening mid level lapse rates through
the afternoon and a persistent, yet weak band of low level warm
advection could be sufficient for an isolated storm to develop.
Any storm that may develop could produce strong downburst winds,
although we`ll maintain PoPs less than 20% at this time given a
lack of more appreciable forcing. Any convection that develops
would quickly diminish this evening with a mostly clear night
expected and low temperatures in the upper 70s.

Another hot day is expected on Monday with high temperatures near
100 and heat indices approaching 105 degrees. The mid level ridge
will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation
chances near zero. While a few spots could reach heat advisory
criteria, we`ll hold off on any issuance at this time given more
humid conditions are expected to arrive later this week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Grueling summer heat will be back in full swing this week as the
upper level ridge strengthens overhead once again. High
temperatures will top out in the triple digits for most locations
each day, with the hottest temperatures expected Thursday through
next weekend. The main caveat to this will be whether rain chances
will return late in the week as there are some indications of a
weakening in the ridge. However, even if this weakening occurs,
there is good agreement among ensemble guidance that the ridge
will strengthen again next weekend. Heat headlines will likely be
needed for much of the upcoming week as heat index values will
reach between 105-110 degrees for many areas on a daily basis.
Warm nights will continue to offer little relief from the heat, so
ensure you take all measures to protect yourself from heat-
related illnesses throughout the week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southeast surface winds near 10 kts and
occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Daytime cumulus at 5-6 kft and some
passing cirrus will be the extent of cloud cover through the
period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 100  79 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                76  99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               74  97  76  99  78 /   5  10   0   0   0
Denton              78 100  78 101  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            78 100  79 100  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              80 101  79 102  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  98  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  99  79 100  79 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              76  99  76  99  76 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77 102  76 101  77 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$