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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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356 FXUS64 KFWD 112354 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 654 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: An outflow boundary from Oklahoma convection earlier in the day remained inactive despite a couple of meager updraft attempts during peak heating. A quiet overnight period is expected with lows falling into the upper 70s, although urban areas may hold near 80. Additional convection is likely to occur north of the Red River overnight into tomorrow morning, but it is rather unlikely any leftover shower or thunderstorm activity would spread southward into North Texas, thus no PoPs will be carried through the short term period. Subsequent forecast issuances will evaluate whether a Heat Advisory will be necessary to begin the workweek. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across Oklahoma at this hour with the southern fringes now spreading across the Red River into parts of our northeastern counties. Despite a fairly strong instability axis farther south and west, weakening low level inflow into this activity should limit the overall southward extent and we`ll keep PoPs confined to our far northern counties through mid afternoon. Late this afternoon, we`ll have to watch for at least isolated thunderstorm development across our far western counties where the aforementioned instability axis will be in place. A tightening theta-e gradient will develop in the wake of the complex to the northeast and should result in a zone of low level convergence this afternoon across the western half of the CWA. This is already reflected in the latest RAP objective analysis, although no notable cumulus have developed as of yet. Steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon and a persistent, yet weak band of low level warm advection could be sufficient for an isolated storm to develop. Any storm that may develop could produce strong downburst winds, although we`ll maintain PoPs less than 20% at this time given a lack of more appreciable forcing. Any convection that develops would quickly diminish this evening with a mostly clear night expected and low temperatures in the upper 70s. Another hot day is expected on Monday with high temperatures near 100 and heat indices approaching 105 degrees. The mid level ridge will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation chances near zero. While a few spots could reach heat advisory criteria, we`ll hold off on any issuance at this time given more humid conditions are expected to arrive later this week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/ Grueling summer heat will be back in full swing this week as the upper level ridge strengthens overhead once again. High temperatures will top out in the triple digits for most locations each day, with the hottest temperatures expected Thursday through next weekend. The main caveat to this will be whether rain chances will return late in the week as there are some indications of a weakening in the ridge. However, even if this weakening occurs, there is good agreement among ensemble guidance that the ridge will strengthen again next weekend. Heat headlines will likely be needed for much of the upcoming week as heat index values will reach between 105-110 degrees for many areas on a daily basis. Warm nights will continue to offer little relief from the heat, so ensure you take all measures to protect yourself from heat- related illnesses throughout the week. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR will prevail with southeast surface winds near 10 kts and occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Daytime cumulus at 5-6 kft and some passing cirrus will be the extent of cloud cover through the period. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 79 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 97 76 99 78 / 5 10 0 0 0 Denton 78 100 78 101 79 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 78 100 79 100 79 / 5 5 0 0 0 Dallas 80 101 79 102 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 99 79 100 79 / 0 5 0 0 0 Temple 76 99 76 99 76 / 0 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 102 76 101 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$