941
FXUS64 KFWD 250536
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across much of
  North and Central Texas today. Severe weather is not expected.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Today looks to feature the highest and most widespread rain
chances of the workweek, with isolated/scattered convective
coverage of 20-40% forecast. The low-level moisture axis which
has been displaced south and east of the CWA the past few days
will pivot northwestward today, causing local PW values to reach
or exceed 2 inches. In addition, a subtle disturbance drifting
northward along the western periphery of the east CONUS upper
ridge will support broad and disorganized ascent. As a moist
boundary layer becomes uncapped by mid/late morning, scattered
shower and storm development should get underway initially across
Central and East Texas, but eventually across parts of North
Texas as well. If outflows are able to consolidate and push
northwestward, convective activity could even reach our far
western/northwestern zones by late afternoon. No severe weather is
forecast, and these cells will mostly consist of tropical heavy
downpours, occasional lightning, and gusty winds to around 40 mph.
All convective activity should begin winding down early in the
evening. Increased cloud cover and the presence of some rain-
cooled air will limit high temperatures, with some areas
struggling to even reach 90F.

Mid-level heights should build overhead following the departure
of today`s disturbance, and this will mean a warmer and drier
forecast for Thursday. Highs should return to the low/mid 90s,
and the extent of rain chances will be confined mainly to our
southeast with the late afternoon arrival of the seabreeze.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
Update:

No real changes have been made to the extended forecast, other
than to trim PoPs slightly on Thursday, confining them to the
Brazos Valley. Low rain chances return early next week, but the
signal is not overly impressive for rainfall through Tuesday, as
mentioned below.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonably hot and mostly rain-free weather will be the main
story for the extended forecast as the strong ridge currently over
the Mid Atlantic expands west through the Southern Plains.
Fortunately, the ridge will be in a weaker state when over North
and Central Texas compared to its current intensity, as it becomes
compromised by multiple disturbances rotating around its
periphery later this week. Even though it will be hot headed into
the weekend, temperatures are not expected to be anywhere near
record values. Triple digit highs are even looking less likely
compared to this time yesterday based on the latest guidance, with
weekend highs likely topping mainly in the mid and upper 90s.

Seabreeze convection will be possible once again Thursday
afternoon, but may shut off completely over the weekend due to
increasing subsidence aloft. The ridge will further weaken early
next week, however, as another shortwave traverses its northern
flank and a weak front sags south into the Red River area. Storm
chances, though not great, should then reenter the picture during
the early to middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

With this TAF issuance, have introduced VCSH/VCTS for all airports
later today based on more bullish overnight guidance in terms of
convective coverage. As rich low-level moisture and a mid-level
disturbance arrive later this morning, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should begin developing across much of North and
Central Texas. This will also be accompanied by an increase in low
cloud cover between 3-4 kft. Convective impacts could begin as
early as ~16z at any of the airports, but will become more likely
by mid afternoon when aided by daytime heating. Outflows from
nearby convection could result in gusty and erratic winds, but
outside of these effects a southeasterly wind around 10 kts will
prevail.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  91  75  94  77 /   0  30  10   5   0
Waco                75  89  74  92  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
Paris               74  91  73  90  73 /  20  20  10   5   0
Denton              76  91  74  93  75 /   5  20  10   5   0
McKinney            75  91  74  93  75 /  10  30  10   5   0
Dallas              77  92  76  94  77 /   5  30  10   5   0
Terrell             74  91  73  91  73 /  20  30  10   5   0
Corsicana           75  91  73  90  74 /  20  40  10  20   0
Temple              75  91  73  92  72 /  20  30  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       73  92  72  93  73 /   0  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$