564
FXUS64 KFWD 121053
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The only update of note is the addition of low PoPs just across
our northeastern counties to account for the convection pushing
through Oklahoma north of the Red River. These showers and
isolated storms should be short-lived through the morning, leading
to a hot afternoon across all of North and Central Texas today.
Stay cool and drink plenty of water!

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

Expect a hot and dry day for all of North and Central Texas, with
afternoon highs ranging between 95-103. Heat indices will border
on criteria for a few locations today, but for now we will hold
off on issuing a Heat Advisory. Better moisture looks to return
later in the week, so this will continue to be reassessed as we
move further into the middle of the month. Otherwise, expect
southerly winds with gusts up to 20 mph and mostly sunny skies.

Overnight lows will stay warm in the mid to upper 70s, with a few
locations within the Metroplex staying at or above 80. Skies will
gradually clear overnight, resulting in quiet conditions.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

The long term forecast continues to feature the intense heat
across the region. Not only we will see widespread triple digit
temperatures but also afternoon heat indices in the 102-110
range. We know we might sound like a broken record when we say it
is going to be hot again, but it is important to remind folks to
stay safe during the intense/dangerous heat. Avoid prolonged time
spent outdoors during the hottest part of the day and stay
hydrated! Don`t forget to check on family and friends, and be
able to recognize the symptoms of heat illness. Visit
weather.gov/heat for more resources.

The mid-upper level ridge will be in control of the pattern
keeping much of the area precipitation free for the next 7 days.
Unfortunately, models continue to trend towards a drier forecast
Thursday night into Friday with rain chances around 10 percent.
At this time, only the GFS/GEFS give us low rain chances as a
weak front approaches from the west. The bulk of the guidance
keeps the rain/storms outside of our area to the north and west.
Looking ahead...the hot conditions will continue over the weekend
and possibly the following week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 20
knots will last through the afternoon and evening. There are a few
showers and thunderstorms across Southern Oklahoma, but these
should remain short-lived and pose no impacts to the terminals.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  80 100  81 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco               100  77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               95  76  99  77  99 /  20   5   0   0   0
Denton             100  78 101  78 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            99  79 100  80 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas             101  80 101  81 102 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             98  77  99  77  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           99  78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$