Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
644 FXUS64 KFWD 020608 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 108 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few lingering showers will continue mainly across the Big Country overnight. - Low storm chances (20-40%) will continue Wednesday through Friday for areas near/west of U.S. 281. - Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Thursday/ Light showers continue this evening primarily across the Big Country, with a mostly quiet night underway. Winds have become light and variable beneath broken mid and high cloud cover across North and Central Texas, with temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 70s this morning. Subtropical ridging will maintain itself to the south and east, while a meandering mid/upper level low is positioned near the West Coast. In between the two, a plume of rich moisture advecting northward and mid level troughing will set the stage for additional scattered showers and a few storms to develop Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night. Most of this activity will be favored farther west, but western North and Central Texas can expect to see around 20-30% coverage mainly near and west of U.S. 281, while the eastern portion of the forecast area remains more subsident. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be the primary threats with any storms that develop. On Thursday, slightly better rain chances will exist, with 20% PoPs spreading as far east as the I-35 corridor. This is due to the slow eastward progression of the mid/upper level low and more widespread, (albeit weak) ascent being able to set up over the area as well as the plume of moisture becoming concentrated over the Big Country and into North TX. Expected isolated to scattered showers and storms once again with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Similar rain chances will continue Thursday night into Friday as the upper level low slowly approaches and PWAT values become maximized across the Big Country/North TX as better moisture advects into the area (guidance depicting > 2", greater than climatological 90th Percentile). Friday`s chances will be greatest once again in the Big Country and for areas to the north and west of the Metroplex as the upper trough lifts northward through the Plains. If you have outdoor plans for July 4th during the day and are generally near/west of I-35, do stay weather aware (especially if you plan on being on any lakes). Coverage should remain low, however, with most locations staying dry on Friday. The weekend and into early next week should then be mostly rain- free and a bit warmer as ridging is able to get a stronger foothold. Temperatures will be seasonably warm through the first week of July with highs in the mid 90s each day Saturday onward. Looking at the 8-14 Day Outlook, more potent subsidence may set up, favoring above normal temperatures. This would be the next real shot at our first 100 degree day of the year heading into mid-July, and has also necessitated CPC outlining a slight risk for extreme heat from 7/9-7/12 mainly due to the potential for triple digit heat indices. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR prevails through the period with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds overhead. For D10, light and variable winds overnight tonight will become E/NE in the morning before becoming slightly more E/SE in the afternoon. For Waco, winds will maintain a a more S/SE component. Speeds will remain generally around 5 to 8 kts. Scattered showers and a few storms may develop tomorrow but are expected to remain west of all TAF sites with the chance of any impacts around 10%. Gordon && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 90 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 Waco 94 75 91 74 91 / 5 5 20 10 10 Paris 91 74 89 73 90 / 5 5 5 5 10 Denton 93 74 90 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 McKinney 92 75 90 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dallas 94 77 91 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 Terrell 93 75 91 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 Corsicana 96 76 93 75 93 / 5 5 10 10 5 Temple 95 74 91 73 93 / 5 5 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 91 73 88 73 91 / 20 20 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$