Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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644
FXUS64 KFWD 020608
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers will continue mainly across the Big
  Country overnight.

- Low storm chances (20-40%) will continue Wednesday through
  Friday for areas near/west of U.S. 281.

- Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and
  heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday/

Light showers continue this evening primarily across the Big
Country, with a mostly quiet night underway. Winds have become light
and variable beneath broken mid and high cloud cover across North
and Central Texas, with temperatures expected to drop into the low
to mid 70s this morning. Subtropical ridging will maintain itself to
the south and east, while a meandering mid/upper level low is
positioned near the West Coast. In between the two, a plume of rich
moisture advecting northward and mid level troughing will set the
stage for additional scattered showers and a few storms to develop
Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night. Most of this activity
will be favored farther west, but western North and Central Texas
can expect to see around 20-30% coverage mainly near and west of
U.S. 281, while the eastern portion of the forecast area remains
more subsident. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be the primary
threats with any storms that develop.

On Thursday, slightly better rain chances will exist, with 20% PoPs
spreading as far east as the I-35 corridor. This is due to the slow
eastward progression of the mid/upper level low and more widespread,
(albeit weak) ascent being able to set up over the area as well as
the plume of moisture becoming concentrated over the Big Country and
into North TX. Expected isolated to scattered showers and storms
once again with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Similar rain chances will continue Thursday night into Friday as the
upper level low slowly approaches and PWAT values become
maximized across the Big Country/North TX as better moisture
advects into the area (guidance depicting > 2", greater than
climatological 90th Percentile). Friday`s chances will be greatest
once again in the Big Country and for areas to the north and west
of the Metroplex as the upper trough lifts northward through the
Plains. If you have outdoor plans for July 4th during the day and
are generally near/west of I-35, do stay weather aware
(especially if you plan on being on any lakes). Coverage should
remain low, however, with most locations staying dry on Friday.
The weekend and into early next week should then be mostly rain-
free and a bit warmer as ridging is able to get a stronger
foothold. Temperatures will be seasonably warm through the first
week of July with highs in the mid 90s each day Saturday onward.
Looking at the 8-14 Day Outlook, more potent subsidence may set
up, favoring above normal temperatures. This would be the next
real shot at our first 100 degree day of the year heading into
mid-July, and has also necessitated CPC outlining a slight risk
for extreme heat from 7/9-7/12 mainly due to the potential for
triple digit heat indices.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR prevails through the period with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds
overhead. For D10, light and variable winds overnight tonight will
become E/NE in the morning before becoming slightly more E/SE in the
afternoon. For Waco, winds will maintain a a more S/SE component.
Speeds will remain generally around 5 to 8 kts.
Scattered showers and a few storms may develop tomorrow but are
expected to remain west of all TAF sites with the chance of any
impacts around 10%.

Gordon

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  90  76  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
Waco                94  75  91  74  91 /   5   5  20  10  10
Paris               91  74  89  73  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Denton              93  74  90  74  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
McKinney            92  75  90  75  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dallas              94  77  91  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Terrell             93  75  91  74  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Corsicana           96  76  93  75  93 /   5   5  10  10   5
Temple              95  74  91  73  93 /   5   5  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       91  73  88  73  91 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$