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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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761 FXUS64 KFWD 170024 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 724 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Visible satellite imagery shows a diminishing cumulus field over North and Central Texas with a few half-hearted convective attempts in the Big Country that have ultimately been suppressed by the prevailing upper ridge. The scattered thunderstorms moving across western North Texas and Oklahoma will be monitored through the evening as a developing low level jet could sustain this activity for several hours. Otherwise, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, so no significant adjustments were needed with this evening`s update other than to incorporate present observations. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ A hot late summer afternoon is beginning to unfold upon us as North and Central Texas remain under the influence of an upper ridge just to our west. Temperatures as of the 12 PM observations have already risen into the low 90s to around 100, with heat indices ranging from 99 to 110. Conditions will continue to warm even further as we get closer to peak heating later in the afternoon, with highs forecast to peak in the upper 90s to around 105. Some guidance continue to show very isolated showers and storms late this afternoon across our northwestern counties where an earlier outflow boundary washed out and a cu field is now developing. An upper-level low across South Texas may be able to provide enough lift for some convective initiation today, but we as well may be too far removed for any convective attempts to gain traction. Have persisted with 10% PoPs over this afternoon to account for the possibility of a storm or two. If a storm were to form over the next several hours, it would be capable of strong to severe downburst winds. Lightning may also serve to start grassfires, so we will need to keep an eye on things this afternoon. A rinse-wash-repeat forecast is in store going into this weekend as our oppressive heat persists across North and Central Texas. Saturday morning low temperatures will only drop into the mid 70s to mid 80s. With the warm start to the morning and plenty of insolation, afternoon temperatures will easily rise to highs around 99 to 106. Afternoon heat indices will peak between 103-111 as dewpoints in the 60s and 70s keep outside conditions humid. As such, the current heat headlines have been extended through Saturday evening. Continue to practice heat safety by drinking plenty of water, avoiding excess time outdoors, and knowing the signs of heat illness. Many in our communities are more vulnerable to this intense summer heat like the elderly, so make sure to check up on friends, family, and neighbors. With the region on the downstream edge of the aforementioned ridge, northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a cluster or two of storms to move south/southeast towards North and Central Texas overnight and on Saturday, similar to what we have seen in the last day or so. However guidance is quite uncertain at this time on the western extent of any convection as most have storms dissipating before reaching our CWA. We will continue to watch for greater consensus in the model guidance and adjust any rain chances in future issuances. Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least the first half of the weekend as above normal temperatures and afternoon humidity less than 35% are expected across the western half of the region. We`ve had plenty of dry days in the past few months, so fuels are cured and in abundance. While more modest wind speeds between 5-10 mph will preclude an even higher threat and hamper spread, any source of spark will easily ignite across areas near and west of I-35. As you go into your weekend plans, make sure to avoid any outdoor activities or actions that could produce fire starts. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ /Saturday Night Through Late Next Week/ The scorching August heat will be in full force the second half of the weekend into early next week. Triple digit temperatures are expected for nearly all locations, especially on Monday. Sunday will feel like the hottest day of the period, as slightly higher humidity will drive heat index values somewhere in the ballpark of 110 to 115 degrees for many locations. Ensure you stay hydrated and limit time spent outdoors, especially during the hottest time of the day. The axis of the upper level ridge responsible for our exceptional heat will slide west on Tuesday, putting North and Central Texas beneath north flow aloft. This will allow a backdoor cold front to slide into the region Tuesday which may end up stalling somewhere within the forecast area. While a few showers or storms can`t be ruled out near the front, strong ridging will still be in place, which will make it rather difficult for any showers or storms to develop. For now, didn`t stray from national blends for the PoP forecast, but it`s at least something to monitor over the next few days. Fortunately, high temperatures will be knocked down at least a few degrees for areas that end up east of the front with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. However, areas west of the front will likely continue to see temperatures between 100-105 degrees (or higher for a few locations). There are indications the ridge axis may continue to retreat further from the area during the second half of the week, allowing a shortwave trough to skirt the periphery of the ridge into North and Central Texas. This may usher a reinforcing cold front through the forecast area, knocking high temperatures down another few degrees or so for most locations. A low potential for rain and storms may accompany the front, but it`s still too early to say with much certainty. At a minimum, some of us can at least be hopeful for the respite from 100+ degree temperatures following this long stretch of triple digit heat. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours with southerly winds at around 10 knots. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the current TAF period. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 103 82 104 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 79 102 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 102 78 103 77 / 0 5 5 5 10 Denton 81 104 79 106 79 / 0 0 5 0 0 McKinney 80 103 80 105 80 / 0 0 5 0 0 Dallas 82 104 82 106 84 / 0 0 5 0 0 Terrell 78 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 102 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 102 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 105 76 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091-092-100>102- 115>117-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ093>095- 103>107-118>123. && $$