761
FXUS64 KFWD 170024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
724 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Visible satellite imagery shows a diminishing cumulus field over
North and Central Texas with a few half-hearted convective
attempts in the Big Country that have ultimately been suppressed
by the prevailing upper ridge. The scattered thunderstorms moving
across western North Texas and Oklahoma will be monitored through
the evening as a developing low level jet could sustain this
activity for several hours. Otherwise, the forecast trends
discussed below remain on track, so no significant adjustments
were needed with this evening`s update other than to incorporate
present observations.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

A hot late summer afternoon is beginning to unfold upon us as North
and Central Texas remain under the influence of an upper ridge just
to our west. Temperatures as of the 12 PM observations have
already risen into the low 90s to around 100, with heat indices
ranging from 99 to 110. Conditions will continue to warm even
further as we get closer to peak heating later in the afternoon,
with highs forecast to peak in the upper 90s to around 105.

Some guidance continue to show very isolated showers and storms
late this afternoon across our northwestern counties where an
earlier outflow boundary washed out and a cu field is now
developing. An upper-level low across South Texas may be able to
provide enough lift for some convective initiation today, but we
as well may be too far removed for any convective attempts to gain
traction. Have persisted with 10% PoPs over this afternoon to
account for the possibility of a storm or two. If a storm were to
form over the next several hours, it would be capable of strong
to severe downburst winds. Lightning may also serve to start
grassfires, so we will need to keep an eye on things this
afternoon.

A rinse-wash-repeat forecast is in store going into this weekend as
our oppressive heat persists across North and Central Texas.
Saturday morning low temperatures will only drop into the mid 70s
to mid 80s. With the warm start to the morning and plenty of
insolation, afternoon temperatures will easily rise to highs
around 99 to 106. Afternoon heat indices will peak between
103-111 as dewpoints in the 60s and 70s keep outside conditions
humid. As such, the current heat headlines have been extended
through Saturday evening. Continue to practice heat safety by
drinking plenty of water, avoiding excess time outdoors, and
knowing the signs of heat illness. Many in our communities are
more vulnerable to this intense summer heat like the elderly, so
make sure to check up on friends, family, and neighbors.

With the region on the downstream edge of the aforementioned ridge,
northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a cluster or two of
storms to move south/southeast towards North and Central Texas
overnight and on Saturday, similar to what we have seen in the
last day or so. However guidance is quite uncertain at this time
on the western extent of any convection as most have storms
dissipating before reaching our CWA. We will continue to watch for
greater consensus in the model guidance and adjust any rain
chances in future issuances.

Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least the
first half of the weekend as above normal temperatures and afternoon
humidity less than 35% are expected across the western half of
the region. We`ve had plenty of dry days in the past few months,
so fuels are cured and in abundance. While more modest wind speeds
between 5-10 mph will preclude an even higher threat and hamper
spread, any source of spark will easily ignite across areas near
and west of I-35. As you go into your weekend plans, make sure to
avoid any outdoor activities or actions that could produce fire
starts.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/
/Saturday Night Through Late Next Week/

The scorching August heat will be in full force the second half
of the weekend into early next week. Triple digit temperatures are
expected for nearly all locations, especially on Monday. Sunday
will feel like the hottest day of the period, as slightly higher
humidity will drive heat index values somewhere in the ballpark
of 110 to 115 degrees for many locations. Ensure you stay hydrated
and limit time spent outdoors, especially during the hottest time
of the day.

The axis of the upper level ridge responsible for our exceptional
heat will slide west on Tuesday, putting North and Central Texas
beneath north flow aloft. This will allow a backdoor cold front to
slide into the region Tuesday which may end up stalling somewhere
within the forecast area. While a few showers or storms can`t be
ruled out near the front, strong ridging will still be in place,
which will make it rather difficult for any showers or storms to
develop. For now, didn`t stray from national blends for the PoP
forecast, but it`s at least something to monitor over the next few
days. Fortunately, high temperatures will be knocked down at
least a few degrees for areas that end up east of the front with
highs in the mid 90s to near 100. However, areas west of the front
will likely continue to see temperatures between 100-105 degrees
(or higher for a few locations).

There are indications the ridge axis may continue to retreat
further from the area during the second half of the week, allowing
a shortwave trough to skirt the periphery of the ridge into
North and Central Texas. This may usher a reinforcing cold front
through the forecast area, knocking high temperatures down another
few degrees or so for most locations. A low potential for rain
and storms may accompany the front, but it`s still too early to
say with much certainty. At a minimum, some of us can at least be
hopeful for the respite from 100+ degree temperatures following
this long stretch of triple digit heat.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours with southerly winds
at around 10 knots. No significant aviation concerns are expected
through the current TAF period.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 103  82 104  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79 102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77 102  78 103  77 /   0   5   5   5  10
Denton              81 104  79 106  79 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            80 103  80 105  80 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              82 104  82 106  84 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             78 102  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79 102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77 102  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77 105  76 106  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ093>095-
103>107-118>123.

&&

$$