764
FXUS64 KFWD 131042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A warm and humid morning will be followed by a hot afternoon with
triple digit highs expected over much of the forecast area. A Heat
Advisory remains in place for this afternoon, and will likely need
to be extended through Wednesday on the day or evening shift. The
ongoing forecast is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments
needed for this update.


30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Satellite imagery reveals anticyclonic flow across North Texas
and the Southern Plains associated with a mid level ridge
positioned overhead. Active weather on the northern periphery of
the ridge will remain well north of the region, keeping North and
Central Texas hot and rain-free through at least midweek. Triple
digit highs and heat indices of 105+ will be common, warranting a
Heat Advisory for all but the Colorado River counties (where
slightly cooler and drier air will be). The advisory is in effect
for Tuesday and will eventually need to be expanded through at
least Wednesday, which will be done once the areas and time lines
are collaborated with surrounding neighbors. A gulf breeze might
bring some minor relief to the southeast counties each afternoon,
but any convection associated with it will be shut down by the
ridge prior to reaching any of the Central Texas zones.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/
/Wednesday night through Next Tuesday/

The triple digit heat will continue to be the main headline
the next several days and likely into early next week.
Temperatures will be on the rise each day with most locations
reaching or exceeding the century mark by Thursday or Friday.
Based on the model trends, Sunday appears to be the hottest day
of the period with forecast highs ranging from 100 to 105. There
is a 20-30% chance a few locations west of Highway 281 may exceed
108 degrees. While this won`t break the record at DFW Airport
(112 in 1909) and Waco Airport (109 in 1909), it is important to
take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illness.
Limit the time outdoors and stay hydrated.

Little to no precipitation is expected over the period as our
chances for a bit of rain Thursday night into Friday is still
around 10 percent. A brief weakness in the upper ridge may send a
disturbance and a weak front across Oklahoma during the day on
Thursday. Unfortunately, the bulk of the guidance keeps the
rain/storms well north of our area.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Light south winds will increase to 10-15kt by midday, with the
occasional gust to 20kt possible this afternoon. Otherwise
ridging aloft will shut off convective attempts and provide quiet
aviation weather through Wednesday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  77  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  77  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton             101  79 101  79 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney           100  80 101  80 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  81 101  81 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           99  78  99  78 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              99  76  99  77 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  77 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$