100
FXUS64 KFWD 071037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect North and
  Central Texas again today, especially western Central Texas
  where flooding is possible.

- Lower rain chances are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  However, a few storms could be strong with gusty winds and
  small hail.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend
  with heat index readings up to 107 possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/
/Today through Tonight/

Much quieter on radar this morning across North and Central Texas
with just a few light rain showers in Milam and Bell Counties.
Airmass across the region remains very moist with a PWAT of 2.17
on the 00Z FWD sounding, albeit lower than we have seen the past
few days. Weak upper trough that has brought all the rain and
flooding to the state over the past several days is expected to
continue weakening today as it moves slowly westward across
Central Texas. Even so, lift associated with the feature and the
very moist airmass will lead to another round of scattered to
numerous showers and storms today across our southwest counties.
Heaviest rain today looks to be just southwest of our cwa per 00Z
model suite and latest CAMs, but HREF/HRRR/NAM still show pockets
of 1 to 3+ inches of rain roughly in the area between Comanche
and Killeen.

Given how much rain this area has seen over the past 3 days with
MRMS radar rainfall estimates ranging from 4 to 10 inches of rain,
have gone ahead and issued another Flood Watch for our far
southwest counties through 00Z. Flooding is not anticipated to be
as widespread or significant as yesterday, but it will not take
much additional rainfall to cause flood issues. Less coverage of
showers and storms is anticipated across the rest of the forecast
area today, but some locally heavy rainfall is possible even
outside the Flood Watch. All activity is expected to rapidly
dissipate around 00Z with dry conditions overnight tonight. Cloud
cover and precip will keep temperatures down again today, with
highs only in the low 80s in our southwest up to the low 90s in
our northeast.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/
/Tuesday through Sunday/

Rain chances will finally begin to diminish Tuesday and Wednesday
across the region as the aforementioned upper trough finally and
thankfully dissipates. Upper pattern will then transition to more
northerly flow as North/Central Texas remains on the east side of
a strong H5 ridge over the Four Corners. This will shift the
higher rain chances into our northern and eastern counties with
potential for activity to also move southward out of Oklahoma. A
strong storm or two is possible both days as MLCAPE rises above
the 1000 J/Kg mark, but nothing widespread is currently
anticipated. From Thursday into the weekend, the upper ridge will
begin dominating our weather regime with little or no precip
chances and much hotter temperatures than we have seen in a while.
Guidance overall has trended cooler for this timeframe and the
chance for seeing highs in the 100s appears to be gone. Still, the
combination of highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the
60s/70s will push heat index readings into the 100-107 range each
afternoon, and heat advisories may be needed for parts of our
forecast area - especially our eastern counties.

Shamburger

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will be seen at D10 airports this TAF period with
broken cigs around 6k ft. VCSH are also anticipated from 17-00Z
but coverage is expected to be too scattered for tempo SHRA. At
ACT, MVFR cigs and SHRA will continue this morning with VCSH and
VFR cigs from midday into the afternoon. South to southeast winds
up to 12 knots can be expected through Tuesday morning.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas
due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is
not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  76  92  76  94 /  40  10  20  10  20
Waco                87  74  90  73  91 /  30   5  20  10  30
Paris               92  73  91  73  93 /  20   5  40  20  30
Denton              90  74  92  74  94 /  40  10  30  10  20
McKinney            91  75  92  75  93 /  20  10  30  10  30
Dallas              92  76  94  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  20
Terrell             92  74  92  74  93 /  20  10  30  10  30
Corsicana           92  75  92  75  93 /  30   5  20  10  30
Temple              89  72  90  72  91 /  30  10  20  10  30
Mineral Wells       89  73  92  73  93 /  50   5  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ141>143-156>158.

&&

$$