123
FXUS64 KFWD 140845
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
/Through Thursday/

Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as
a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. Triple digit high
temperatures and heat indices of 105+ will be widespread, and a
Heat Advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday evening for
the majority of the region. The ridge will weaken slightly
Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the
Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards
the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the
resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower
heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high
temperatures Thursday afternoon.

A caveat would be any isolated thunderstorms firing along the
stalling front near our northwest zones Thursday afternoon, which
is advertised by a few recent convection-allowing models. Clouds
and precip would possibly keep some areas below advisory criteria,
but at this time the probabilities remain fairly low (around 10
percent or less). The more likely scenario is that subsidence from
the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone
hot and rain free for another day. South winds of 10 to 15 MPH
combined with high temperatures in the 100 to 105 range will also
elevate the threat for wildfires roughly along and west of Highway
281 the next few afternoons.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday night through Next Wednesday/

The intense heat will continue to be the main headline for all
North and Central Texas. These abnormally hot temperatures will
persist through at least the middle portions of next week. High
temperatures in the 100-109 range and heat indices above 105
degrees are expected for much of the region each afternoon. The
upper ridge will strengthens this weekend resulting in our
hottest days of this period. Many locations will likely see highs
above 103 both Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, these
dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if
precautions are not taken.

Otherwise, dry weather will persist across the region. Based on
the latest medium range models, the summertime cold front
expected to move across Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday won`t
make it all the way down into our Red River counties. This will
keep our chances to see any appreciable rain less than 10 percent.
After that, most of the long-range guidance keep us rain-free
through the end of next week as the upper ridge remains in control
of the weather pattern.

The combination of above normal temperatures and dry weather may
result in elevated fire threat west of Highway 281 this weekend
into early next week. One caveat will be the winds as they are
forecast to remain below 10 mph. This should keep the threat
isolated in nature.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and overall quiet aviation weather is expected through
Thursday as high pressure aloft remains in control. Winds will
remain south to southeast at 10-15kt with occasional gusts around
20kt.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  82 101  81 102 /   0   0  10   0   0
Waco                99  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               98  77  98  78  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
Denton             101  80 101  79 102 /   0   0  10   5   5
McKinney           100  81 101  80 101 /   0   0  10   0   5
Dallas             102  83 102  82 103 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           99  78 100  79 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              99  77 101  77 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells      102  79 103  77 104 /   0   0  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$