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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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123 FXUS64 KFWD 140845 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ /Through Thursday/ Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. Triple digit high temperatures and heat indices of 105+ will be widespread, and a Heat Advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday evening for the majority of the region. The ridge will weaken slightly Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high temperatures Thursday afternoon. A caveat would be any isolated thunderstorms firing along the stalling front near our northwest zones Thursday afternoon, which is advertised by a few recent convection-allowing models. Clouds and precip would possibly keep some areas below advisory criteria, but at this time the probabilities remain fairly low (around 10 percent or less). The more likely scenario is that subsidence from the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone hot and rain free for another day. South winds of 10 to 15 MPH combined with high temperatures in the 100 to 105 range will also elevate the threat for wildfires roughly along and west of Highway 281 the next few afternoons. 30 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday night through Next Wednesday/ The intense heat will continue to be the main headline for all North and Central Texas. These abnormally hot temperatures will persist through at least the middle portions of next week. High temperatures in the 100-109 range and heat indices above 105 degrees are expected for much of the region each afternoon. The upper ridge will strengthens this weekend resulting in our hottest days of this period. Many locations will likely see highs above 103 both Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, these dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if precautions are not taken. Otherwise, dry weather will persist across the region. Based on the latest medium range models, the summertime cold front expected to move across Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday won`t make it all the way down into our Red River counties. This will keep our chances to see any appreciable rain less than 10 percent. After that, most of the long-range guidance keep us rain-free through the end of next week as the upper ridge remains in control of the weather pattern. The combination of above normal temperatures and dry weather may result in elevated fire threat west of Highway 281 this weekend into early next week. One caveat will be the winds as they are forecast to remain below 10 mph. This should keep the threat isolated in nature. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and overall quiet aviation weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure aloft remains in control. Winds will remain south to southeast at 10-15kt with occasional gusts around 20kt. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 82 101 81 102 / 0 0 10 0 0 Waco 99 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Paris 98 77 98 78 98 / 0 0 5 5 5 Denton 101 80 101 79 102 / 0 0 10 5 5 McKinney 100 81 101 80 101 / 0 0 10 0 5 Dallas 102 83 102 82 103 / 0 0 5 0 0 Terrell 99 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 99 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Temple 99 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$