529
FXUS64 KFWD 140544
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as
a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. Triple digit high
temperatures and heat indices of 105+ will be widespread, and a
Heat Advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday evening for
the majority of the region. The ridge will weaken slightly
Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the
Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards
the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the
resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower
heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high
temperatures Thursday afternoon.

A caveat would be any isolated thunderstorms firing along the
stalling front near our northwest zones Thursday afternoon, which
is advertised by a few recent convection-allowing models. Clouds
and precip would possibly keep some areas below advisory criteria,
but at this time the probabilities remain fairly low (around 10
percent or less). The more likely scenario is that subsidence from
the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone
hot and rain free for another day. South winds of 10 to 15 MPH
combined with high temperatures in the 100 to 105 range will also
elevate the threat for wildfires roughly along and west of Highway
281 the next few afternoons.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

It`s August in Texas. This often means upper ridging that
suppresses cloud cover and precludes rain chances while pushing
afternoon temperatures into the triple digits. The next several
days will fit this heatwave archetype to a T. Although many
locations have not yet reached the century mark this week, high
temperatures will steadily climb the remainder of the week, with
the hottest weather of the year on tap for the upcoming weekend.
The boundary layer depth will also be on the increase, allowing
for deeper mixing. This won`t make the afternoons feel dry, but as
the week progresses, more and more locations will see dew points
fall below 70F during peak heating. The 60F isodrosotherm may even
encroach on our western zones this weekend, the mark of a thorough
summer heatwave. Despite the decrease in absolute humidity at the
surface, the increase in temperatures should assure that Heat
Advisory criteria are easily met, with some locations reaching
Excessive Heat Warning levels later in the week.

A Central Plains shortwave on Thursday may encourage a front to
slip underneath the ridge, but its forward progress and associated
rainfall potential are not promising this far south. Thereafter,
extended guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the
evolution of the ridge, amplifying it into the upcoming weekend
before a seasonal retrograde to our west early next week. By
Tuesday next week, a near 600-dm high will be centered over New
Mexico at 500mb. Although extended solutions agree on this, the
downstream pattern over us is quite different. The ECMWF has
northerly flow aloft while the GFS has the mid-level ridge axis
atop North Texas. The contrast in the MOS output is stark with the
ECMWF giving DFW a near-normal high of 98F on Tuesday while the
GFS torments us with 107F. For August 20, 107F is nearly 2
standard deviations above the mean, which is extraordinary for a
summer distribution. It`s also just shy of the record high of
109F, which was set last summer.

.FIRE WEATHER...

After one of the wettest springs on record, this summer has been a
reversal of fortune. Many locations, particularly across western
North Texas, have seen little rainfall since May. The resulting
flash drought has reignited wildfire concerns as the abundant
spring growth is now dormant or otherwise drought-stressed. While
summer dormancy is normal, the extent of the rainfall deficits
this season have allowed this vegetation to effective cure in many
areas, providing ample fuel for potential wildfires.

Although grassfires will be possible elsewhere, the greatest
concern for fire starts will be across western portions of North
Texas where the most extreme precipitation deficits will coincide
with afternoon relative humidity values consistently falling below
30 percent. More widespread fire weather concerns will accompany
the excessive heat this weekend. Although full sunshine and above
normal temperatures may encourage fire initiation, relatively
light winds should limit spread and aid in containment.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and overall quiet aviation weather is expected through
Thursday as high pressure aloft remains in control. Winds will
remain south to southeast at 10-15kt with occasional gusts around
20kt.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 101  81 102  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
Waco                79 101  78 101  78 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               77  98  78  98  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Denton              80 101  79 102  78 /   0  10   5   5   0
McKinney            81 101  80 101  80 /   0  10   0   5   0
Dallas              83 102  82 103  82 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             78  99  78 100  78 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           78 100  79 101  79 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              77 101  77 101  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       79 103  77 104  77 /   0  10   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$