![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
529 FXUS64 KFWD 140544 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. Triple digit high temperatures and heat indices of 105+ will be widespread, and a Heat Advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday evening for the majority of the region. The ridge will weaken slightly Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high temperatures Thursday afternoon. A caveat would be any isolated thunderstorms firing along the stalling front near our northwest zones Thursday afternoon, which is advertised by a few recent convection-allowing models. Clouds and precip would possibly keep some areas below advisory criteria, but at this time the probabilities remain fairly low (around 10 percent or less). The more likely scenario is that subsidence from the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone hot and rain free for another day. South winds of 10 to 15 MPH combined with high temperatures in the 100 to 105 range will also elevate the threat for wildfires roughly along and west of Highway 281 the next few afternoons. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ /Thursday Through Early Next Week/ It`s August in Texas. This often means upper ridging that suppresses cloud cover and precludes rain chances while pushing afternoon temperatures into the triple digits. The next several days will fit this heatwave archetype to a T. Although many locations have not yet reached the century mark this week, high temperatures will steadily climb the remainder of the week, with the hottest weather of the year on tap for the upcoming weekend. The boundary layer depth will also be on the increase, allowing for deeper mixing. This won`t make the afternoons feel dry, but as the week progresses, more and more locations will see dew points fall below 70F during peak heating. The 60F isodrosotherm may even encroach on our western zones this weekend, the mark of a thorough summer heatwave. Despite the decrease in absolute humidity at the surface, the increase in temperatures should assure that Heat Advisory criteria are easily met, with some locations reaching Excessive Heat Warning levels later in the week. A Central Plains shortwave on Thursday may encourage a front to slip underneath the ridge, but its forward progress and associated rainfall potential are not promising this far south. Thereafter, extended guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the evolution of the ridge, amplifying it into the upcoming weekend before a seasonal retrograde to our west early next week. By Tuesday next week, a near 600-dm high will be centered over New Mexico at 500mb. Although extended solutions agree on this, the downstream pattern over us is quite different. The ECMWF has northerly flow aloft while the GFS has the mid-level ridge axis atop North Texas. The contrast in the MOS output is stark with the ECMWF giving DFW a near-normal high of 98F on Tuesday while the GFS torments us with 107F. For August 20, 107F is nearly 2 standard deviations above the mean, which is extraordinary for a summer distribution. It`s also just shy of the record high of 109F, which was set last summer. .FIRE WEATHER... After one of the wettest springs on record, this summer has been a reversal of fortune. Many locations, particularly across western North Texas, have seen little rainfall since May. The resulting flash drought has reignited wildfire concerns as the abundant spring growth is now dormant or otherwise drought-stressed. While summer dormancy is normal, the extent of the rainfall deficits this season have allowed this vegetation to effective cure in many areas, providing ample fuel for potential wildfires. Although grassfires will be possible elsewhere, the greatest concern for fire starts will be across western portions of North Texas where the most extreme precipitation deficits will coincide with afternoon relative humidity values consistently falling below 30 percent. More widespread fire weather concerns will accompany the excessive heat this weekend. Although full sunshine and above normal temperatures may encourage fire initiation, relatively light winds should limit spread and aid in containment. && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and overall quiet aviation weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure aloft remains in control. Winds will remain south to southeast at 10-15kt with occasional gusts around 20kt. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 101 81 102 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 Waco 79 101 78 101 78 / 0 5 0 0 0 Paris 77 98 78 98 77 / 0 5 5 5 0 Denton 80 101 79 102 78 / 0 10 5 5 0 McKinney 81 101 80 101 80 / 0 10 0 5 0 Dallas 83 102 82 103 82 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 78 99 78 100 78 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 100 79 101 79 / 0 5 0 0 0 Temple 77 101 77 101 77 / 0 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 79 103 77 104 77 / 0 10 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$