754
FXUS64 KFWD 151045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Went ahead and issued a grass fire danger statement for areas west
of the I-35 corridor where hot, dry, and breezy conditions will
exist. A Heat Advisory otherwise remains in effect for the vast
majority of the region through this evening. The ongoing forecast
is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments needed for this
update.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

The mid level ridge responsible for the ongoing hot streak will
weaken slightly along its northern flank today as a shortwave
trough traverses the Plains and a weak front approaches from the
northwest. This should allow for isolated thunderstorm development
across western Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. Convection
will likely remain north of the region, though there is an outside
chance (10%) that a storm or two reaches Montague County before
dissipating. The more likely scenario is that compressional
warming ahead of the front will keep the heat going, with
widespread triple digit high temperatures expected along with
heat index values of 105 to 110. A Heat Advisory will hence
remain in effect across the majority of the region.

Hot, dry, and breezy weather will create an elevated threat for
grass fires during the afternoon hours, especially west of I-35
where the more volatile conditions will be. Fortunately wind
speeds should remain low enough for initial attack ops to suffice
with regard to containment. The front will retreat north on Friday
while the ridge begins to re-strengthen, keeping triple digit heat
and rain-free conditions going through the end of the work week.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 159 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/
/Friday night through Next Thursday/

Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least
early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat
index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest
temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level
ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North
and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat
indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western
north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These
dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if
precautions are not taken.

With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent
opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond
that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the
ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a
door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late
week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We
will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow
down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the
temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period
don`t look as oppressive as the next several days.

Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this
weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones
where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should
remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in
containment.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Patchy low clouds near KATT will remain south and east of all TAF
sites this morning. An isolated storm or two may develop near UKW
this afternoon, but convection should remain well north and west
of all DFW Metroplex airports. VFR can be expected areawide with
south to southeast winds of 10-15kt along with the occasional 20kt
gust.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  83 102  82 103 /   0   0   5   0   0
Waco               101  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris              100  78 100  78 101 /   0   5   5   0   0
Denton             102  81 103  79 104 /   5  10   5   0   0
McKinney           102  82 102  80 103 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas             102  83 103  82 104 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell            100  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana          101  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple             101  78 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      103  79 103  77 105 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$