Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
544 FXUS64 KFWD 090551 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected on Wednesday. Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty winds, and heavy rain. - Storm chances decrease Thursday and Friday before increasing again this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the start of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ A weak southwest-to-northeast oriented upper trough will be the primary weather feature of note for the next few days as it works its way slowly southeast through the region. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be the result again both Wednesday and Thursday, with activity focused a little farther south and east each day. An exception may be any storms which originate in Oklahoma and move south in the north flow aloft, which could affect northwest portions of the CWA before dissipating. One such storm complex is ongoing and just grazing our western-most counties, and another will be possible Wednesday night. Otherwise, convection will likely develop in the mid afternoon hours, reach peak coverage and intensity 6 to 9 PM and dissipate by midnight. There is no one particular surface focus for convection, so activity will likely be disorganized and initiate on remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday night`s storms. Weak flow aloft will preclude any significant threat for severe weather, though 2000-3000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE may allow for 50+ MPH gusts in the stronger storms. The more prominent hazard will likely be heavy rain and localized flooding. Otherwise, temperatures should be near to slightly below normal for the next week. 30 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ By Friday, the shortwave and associated convection will be mainly along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, though a lingering weakness aloft may still generate a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms. A mid latitude trough will then sweep through the Plains over the weekend, sending a cold front into the Red River region. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the southward push of the front, which would have an impact on weekend temperatures. As it stands now, showers and storms which will likely develop along and ahead of the front (and the associated cloud cover) would keep temperatures at least a couple degrees below normal, even if the front stays north of the Red River. By Monday, the weakness aloft will have shifted into West Texas while a mid/upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley builds in from the east. This would shift rain chances to areas mainly near and west of I-35, while returning temperatures closer to normal values for mid July. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Convection has all but dissipated with the loss of surface instability, with the exception of a north flow aloft storm complex over the Big Country, and a few pop-up showers in the Metroplex. Have added a VCSH for the showers but the Big Country storms will stay well west of all TAF sites. A swath of MVFR ceilings may affect KACT around 12Z, which has been included in a TEMPO group, but these cigs should stay southeast of the Metroplex. Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, but coverage is expected to be lower than Tuesday evening`s convection, and will likely stick with VCSH. Otherwise, VFR and south winds of 10-20kt during the day and 5-10 kt at night are expected through Wednesday night. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 95 77 94 76 / 5 10 0 0 5 Waco 73 91 73 90 73 / 10 10 0 5 0 Paris 73 94 75 94 74 / 5 10 0 0 5 Denton 73 96 75 94 75 / 5 5 0 0 5 McKinney 75 95 76 94 75 / 5 10 0 0 5 Dallas 76 96 77 95 76 / 5 10 0 0 5 Terrell 73 94 74 94 74 / 5 20 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 94 75 94 75 / 10 20 0 5 0 Temple 73 92 72 91 73 / 10 10 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 73 95 74 94 73 / 5 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$