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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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754 FXUS64 KFWD 151045 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Went ahead and issued a grass fire danger statement for areas west of the I-35 corridor where hot, dry, and breezy conditions will exist. A Heat Advisory otherwise remains in effect for the vast majority of the region through this evening. The ongoing forecast is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments needed for this update. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ The mid level ridge responsible for the ongoing hot streak will weaken slightly along its northern flank today as a shortwave trough traverses the Plains and a weak front approaches from the northwest. This should allow for isolated thunderstorm development across western Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. Convection will likely remain north of the region, though there is an outside chance (10%) that a storm or two reaches Montague County before dissipating. The more likely scenario is that compressional warming ahead of the front will keep the heat going, with widespread triple digit high temperatures expected along with heat index values of 105 to 110. A Heat Advisory will hence remain in effect across the majority of the region. Hot, dry, and breezy weather will create an elevated threat for grass fires during the afternoon hours, especially west of I-35 where the more volatile conditions will be. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low enough for initial attack ops to suffice with regard to containment. The front will retreat north on Friday while the ridge begins to re-strengthen, keeping triple digit heat and rain-free conditions going through the end of the work week. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 159 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ /Friday night through Next Thursday/ Unfortunately, our August heat wave will persist through at least early next week with multiple days of triple digit highs and heat index values. We are still on track to experience the hottest temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains. Much of North and Central Texas will see triple digit highs on Sunday and heat indices between 105-110 degrees. A few locations across western north Texas could see highs approaching 106-108 degrees. These dangerous hot conditions will result in heat related illness if precautions are not taken. With the strong upper ridge in control, we will miss any decent opportunity for rain through at least early next week. Beyond that, guidance continues to show a slight western shift of the ridge, resulting in north/northwest flow aloft. This could open a door for a storm complex to approach from the north mid to late week, but at this time chances are still less than 10 percent. We will have to wait a few more days to see how the models narrow down their solutions. One bit of good news is that both the temperature and heat index forecasts for the mid/late week period don`t look as oppressive as the next several days. Otherwise, the fire weather threat will remain elevated this weekend into early next week, mainly across the western zones where the hottest/driest conditions are expected. Winds should remain below 10 mph each day limiting spread and aid in containment. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Patchy low clouds near KATT will remain south and east of all TAF sites this morning. An isolated storm or two may develop near UKW this afternoon, but convection should remain well north and west of all DFW Metroplex airports. VFR can be expected areawide with south to southeast winds of 10-15kt along with the occasional 20kt gust. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 83 102 82 103 / 0 0 5 0 0 Waco 101 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 100 78 100 78 101 / 0 5 5 0 0 Denton 102 81 103 79 104 / 5 10 5 0 0 McKinney 102 82 102 80 103 / 0 5 5 0 0 Dallas 102 83 103 82 104 / 0 0 5 0 0 Terrell 100 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 101 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 101 78 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 103 79 103 77 105 / 10 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$