011
FXUS64 KFWD 211042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Scattered convection associated with shortwave ascent continues
across portions of North Texas this morning. While much of this
activity near the I-20 corridor is likely to wane through the
morning, more widespread new development is expected this
afternoon as diurnal destabilization occurs and a weak frontal
zone pushes into North Texas. Have made refinements to PoPs
through the next 36 hours based on trends in overnight guidance.
This also includes a southward shift of Monday`s rain chances
alluded to in the previous discussion, with parts of North Texas
likely staying dry through the daytime tomorrow.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Scattered and disorganized convection will be the story through
the short term period as broad modest ascent prevails in the
presence of upper troughing while a diffuse frontal zone sags
towards North Texas later today. Synoptic scale ascent is aiding
in ongoing high-based activity across western North Texas, but
much more widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast this
afternoon as surface-based diurnal destabilization is achieved.
The moderate CAPE but low shear environment typical of late July
will allow for some degree of microburst potential, but organized
severe weather is not expected. While peak coverage will occur
through the late afternoon and evening period, much more isolated
convective activity may linger through the overnight hours into
Monday morning, not dissimilar from tonight`s radar presentation.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for Monday`s convective
placement/coverage as recent CAM guidance has become more
aggressive with shunting the frontal zone farther south into
Central Texas, limiting any source of focused ascent through much
of our CWA. Have cautiously lowered PoPs with this scenario in
mind as coverage may only be in the 20-40% range for most of the
forecast area during the daytime on Monday. Even if a drier
solution were to come to fruition, the combination of slightly
cooler post-frontal air and increased cloud cover should still
hold high temperatures below normal, with most locations
struggling to approach 90 degrees.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/
/Tuesday Through Saturday/

Mid-latitude troughing will dig into the Lone Star State on
Tuesday, and the mid-level trough axis will remain anchored over
us into the upcoming weekend. This will mean a protracted period
of unsettled weather with below normal temperatures and daily rain
chances. Despite minimal inhibition regionwide, the orientation of
the trough will focus the highest and most persistent rain chances
across Central and East Texas. These areas will benefit from the
richest moisture flux and the more favorable forcing for ascent.
The result will be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts over the
course of the week, from scant totals in our northwest to
potential flooding in Central Texas.

As the showers and storms will be largely diurnally driven, cloud
cover during the daylight hours will likely keep Central and East
Texas below 90F into the upcoming weekend. With considerable
rainfall, some locations could experience a day with temperatures
peaking in the 70s. But after an unseasonably cloudy day on
Monday, the sun will return Tuesday to much of North Texas where
sunshine will outpace cloud cover the remainder of the week. While
still below normal, high temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s across much of North Texas from Wednesday into the upcoming
weekend.

25

.CLIMATE...

Our current forecast keeps Waco`s temperatures below 90F for 5
consecutive days. During the latter half of July, this has only
happened once before (July 21-25, 1938).

Killeen had a rainy stretch of 6 consecutive days below 90F in
late July 2007. Our current forecast, which has highs in the 80s
Monday through Saturday, would match that streak.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

High-based showers are present within D10 as of 11z with very
infrequent lightning strikes accompanying this activity. Due to
lightning`s scarcity, TS won`t be included in the TAFs through
the very near term, but will include a short Tempo group to
address reduced visibility within heavier rain showers. After
current activity exits the airports to the east later this
morning, additional convective development is likely during the
peak heating hours this afternoon. Coverage and placement of these
storms is still uncertain, but will retain VCTS at all airports
through the late afternoon period. It`s unclear if shortwave
ascent will be sufficient to sustain storms in North Texas later
into the evening and overnight after diurnal heating has waned,
but it is conceivable that storms could continue to affect any of
the TAF sites on an intermittent basis through ~06z. Otherwise,
expect VFR cigs and southeast winds to prevail, although winds may
begin taking on a more ENE direction heading into Monday morning
in the presence of a diffuse front.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  74  88  72  88 /  40  30  30  20  30
Waco                92  72  90  71  86 /  50  50  60  50  60
Paris               86  70  86  70  86 /  40  20  30  20  30
Denton              91  70  89  70  89 /  40  30  30  20  20
McKinney            89  71  87  71  88 /  40  30  30  20  30
Dallas              90  74  89  73  89 /  40  30  30  30  30
Terrell             90  71  89  70  86 /  40  30  40  30  40
Corsicana           93  73  90  72  87 /  40  40  60  50  60
Temple              94  71  90  70  86 /  50  40  70  50  70
Mineral Wells       93  70  88  69  89 /  30  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$