172
FXUS64 KFWD 162021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Another hot day is in store for all of North and Central Texas,
with afternoon highs today ranging from the mid and upper 90s to
low 100s. Heat indices will be slightly lower today, but a few
locations will still meet Heat Advisory criteria. This heat
product will remain in effect through 8 PM this evening, with no
changes expected with this forecast update. Otherwise, generally
sunny skies will prevail through the day with southwesterly winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Dew points should mix into the mid 50s for
points west of I-35, while points east remain in the upper 60s.

A rare summertime pattern change lingers on the horizon, which is
thanks to an amplifying trough over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes. This will also help to push the mid level ridge further
west, decreasing its influence across North and Central Texas.
This will lead to cooler Canadian air actually making its way
south. A cold front at the leading edge of this air mass will
start to sweep south across Oklahoma, eventually making it through
portions of North Texas by Wednesday afternoon. While it will
still be hot on Wednesday, ambient temperatures will be several
degrees cooler than previous days. Highs are expected to reach
into the mid to upper 90s, although heat indices will remain below
Heat Advisory criteria. Therefore, no extension will be necessary
and the current heat product will be allowed to expire.

The cold front will increase our rain chances through Wednesday
afternoon and evening, which will also be the best opportunity for
rain that we`ve had in a while. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will likely spread across the region along the
leading edge of the front. While severe weather is not expected,
some storms could be strong with marginally severe winds.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night through Next Week/

Showers and storms will continue to push south into Central Texas
Wednesday evening, eventually dissipating Wednesday night with
the loss of diurnal instability. The cold front partially
responsible for the convection will stall somewhere across the
CWA, likely across Central Texas, providing focus for additional
development Thursday morning as a trailing shortwave passes
overhead. Morning convection should push south of the area
Thursday afternoon as the front sags farther south and east, and
precipitation will most likely remain south and east of the
region for the rest of the day. Weak flow aloft will preclude a
severe weather threat for the most part, though good instability
will support a few strong storms, and perhaps an isolated severe
storm or two with damaging downburst winds.

A lull in rain chances is expected on Friday as convection
remains focused across South Central and Southeast Texas along the
front, though low POPs will be kept across Central Texas where
isolated storms may still occur. The boundary will lift north
through Central and North Texas on Saturday as the next shortwave
trough drops south through the Plains. Widespread convective
development appears likely across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma
Saturday afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues dropping
south, with activity again focused along the front. The boundary
will reverse course again, returning south as a cold front along
with the associated convection Saturday night and Sunday, bringing
good rain chances for the latter half of the weekend. The slow
movement of the shortwave and the presence of the surface front
will provide additional storm chances for Monday and possibly
into Tuesday of next week.

Clouds, precipitation, and slightly cooler air behind the front
will also ensure below-normal temperatures during the Sunday
through next Tuesday period. Mid range guidance indicates that
weak troughing will linger overhead during the days 7 through 10
period, which points to seasonable temperatures and at least
slight chance POPs for the middle and latter part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Afternoon/Evening.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Southwesterly winds will continue at around 5 to 10 knots,
with gusts upwards of 20 knots. Other than a few passing cirrus
and some generic cumulus, conditions will be fair with no impacts.

A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon
into the evening hours, along which isolated to scattered showers
and storms could develop. This may have a direct impact on the TAF
sites, which prompts me to include a line for VCTS around 21z.
Winds will turn north at around 5 to 10 knots as this front
passes through, with occasionally higher gusts possible as outflow
boundaries spread out across North and Central Texas.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  76  93  74 /   0  30  30  30  10
Waco                77  99  75  95  73 /   0  20  30  50  20
Paris               77  95  72  88  69 /   0  30  30  40  10
Denton              80  99  73  94  71 /   5  30  30  20  10
McKinney            80  98  73  92  71 /   0  30  30  30  10
Dallas              82 100  76  94  74 /   0  30  30  30  10
Terrell             77  97  73  92  71 /   0  30  30  40  20
Corsicana           77  99  76  94  74 /   0  20  30  50  30
Temple              75  98  75  96  71 /   0  10  20  50  20
Mineral Wells       77  99  73  94  70 /   0  30  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$