936
FXUS64 KFWD 110828
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 107 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/Through Friday/

As North and Central Texas remain under a persistent col, mostly
sunny and hot conditions will continue into Thursday and Friday.
Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s and heat index values
approaching the century mark each afternoon. The weakness in the
upper-level height field may allow for a few very isolated,
diurnally-driven thunderstorms to develop across portions of North
and Central Texas in the vicinity of any lingering weak outflow
boundaries. Like yesterday, convection will struggle against some
relatively dry mid-level and low-level air. Therefore, expect
storms to mature and collapse quite rapidly and coverage to remain
sparse (less than 15%).

Strengthening moist, low-level southerly flow and an inverted
mid-level trough axis moving over portions of South and Central
Texas will increase chances for showers and storms across our far
southern zones Friday afternoon/evening. We will keep 15-30% PoPs
contained to our Brazos Valley counties and the Killeen-Temple
MSA for now. Lightning and brief, gusty winds will be the primary
hazards.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Through the weekend, North Central Texas will remain under the
well-advertised col persisting between the upper high over the
Rockies and a second ridge draped along the Gulf Coast. The
weakness in the height field mentioned in the short term
discussion will linger in our vicinity through Saturday. This
feature, coupled with an active sea breeze, will facilitate the
development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
our southeastern zones Saturday afternoon.

From Sunday on through the middle of next week, the Gulf Coast
ridge will gradually backbuild into North Texas, leading to a
subtle increase in heights and deep layer thicknesses. This
ridging will effectively prevent the development of any
precipitation across the region through the middle of next week.

While most daytime highs Saturday and Sunday should be limited to
the mid to upper 90s areawide, the slow increase in subsidence
and thicknesses should yield daily readings in the upper 90s to low
100s Monday through Wednesday. While we`re not expecting a major
surge in humidity through the extended period, the increase in
temperatures will promote afternoon heat indices on the order of
105 to 109 degrees next week, particularly along and east of I-35.
Heat advisories may thus resume for some areas by
Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 107 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and light southerly flow will prevail through the
TAF period for all TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms may once
again develop Thursday afternoon across portions of North and
Central Texas (less than 15% chance), but coverage will remain far
too sparse for a VCTS mention in the TAF at this moment.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  77  98  78  96 /  10   0  10   0   5
Waco                97  75  95  76  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
Paris               94  72  95  74  93 /  10   0   5   0  10
Denton              98  75  98  74  97 /  10   0   5   0   5
McKinney            97  74  97  75  96 /  10   0   5   0   5
Dallas              98  77  98  78  97 /  10   0  10   0   5
Terrell             96  73  96  74  94 /  10   0  10   0  10
Corsicana           97  75  95  76  95 /  10   0  10   5  10
Temple              97  74  95  74  93 /  10   0  10   5  10
Mineral Wells       98  72  98  73  96 /  10   0  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$