Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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658 FXUS64 KFWD 120511 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday/ Seasonably hot weather will continue to finish out the week and going into the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees. Stronger ridging will remain displaced off to the west leaving the Southern Plains beneath a weakness in the mid level height fields. While this pattern can often lead to a scattering of thunderstorms during peak heating, relatively dry air remains in place with a notable moisture gradient displaced to our south. Meanwhile, a fairly pronounced upper level (400-200 mb) trough will remain positioned from the Great Lakes southwest into North Texas through Saturday. This feature will provide some weak forcing for ascent, but the drier air should mean that most of North Texas remains precipitation free this afternoon. The only exception may be across our southern counties where an active sea breeze should lead to a decent coverage of thunderstorms across southeast Texas. Some of these may work into our central TX counties by late afternoon. We`ll have 20% PoPs to account for this. Any afternoon storms will diminish by evening with loss of heating. On Saturday, the deeper moisture will spread a little farther north toward the I-20 corridor while the main synoptic scale features remain relatively unchanged. This should lead to a slightly better areal coverage of afternoon showers/storms from our Central TX counties north to around I-20. Most areas will remain dry with peak coverage around 20% during the late afternoon. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ /This Weekend Through Next Week/ A persistent col will remain above North and Central Texas this weekend, the relative weakness allowing the active sea breeze to move deeper inland on Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms would primarily impact Central and East Texas, the disorganized convection disrupting outdoor activities with lightning and gusty winds. By Sunday, an inverted trough will begin invading West Texas, which should introduce subsidence above North and Central Texas. The resulting inhibition should keep the radar scope quiet while adding a couple of degrees to daytime temperatures. While highs should peak in the 90s, steadily increasing boundary layer moisture could allow heat index values to approach 105. During the first half of the upcoming week, we will be in the battleground between troughing to our west and a retrograding ridge from the east. Mid-level heights may increase during this process, but since the ridge is unlikely to fully re-establish itself, temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal Monday through Wednesday. Extended MOS keeps highs in the 90s, but the perfect-prog blend favors triple digits from North Central Texas into the Big Country where soil moisture deficits persist. This includes the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. During the latter half of the week, ridging in the West will amplify as the Southeast ridge shifts equatorward. This will allow a mid-latitude trough to dive into the Southern Plains, its associated surface front arriving on Thursday next week. July fronts struggle to move deep into Texas, but even if temperatures don`t significantly drop, above normal precipitation chances will dominate the end of the upcoming week. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with south-southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Isolated TS may develop from Waco southward on Fri afternoon with slightly better coverage on Saturday. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are expected at this time. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 98 78 97 79 / 5 0 0 5 0 Waco 73 95 75 96 77 / 0 10 5 20 5 Paris 71 95 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 5 0 Denton 73 98 74 98 76 / 10 0 0 5 0 McKinney 73 97 75 97 77 / 5 0 0 5 0 Dallas 76 98 78 98 79 / 5 0 0 10 0 Terrell 72 95 74 95 76 / 5 5 0 20 0 Corsicana 72 96 76 97 77 / 0 10 0 20 5 Temple 73 95 74 94 74 / 0 20 5 20 5 Mineral Wells 72 98 73 98 75 / 10 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$