Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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997 FXUS64 KFWD 132213 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 513 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Ongoing showers and storms across Central Texas will become less numerous with the loss of daytime heating, dissipating shortly after sunset. Locations that were fortunate enough to pick up a bit of rain also saw a cool down with rain-cooled air dropping temperatures into the 80s. Our thinking with regards to the current forecast has not changed (see discussion below). Although slightly warmer temperatures Sunday may push heat index values close to 105 in a few locations, coverage and duration of these readings will not be extensive enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Sunday. However, one may be necessary in some locations to start the work week. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday/ North and Central Texas will remain beneath weak ridging through the weekend, with the ridge axis firmly planted over the Four Corners Region. A plume of rich Gulf moisture will continue to migrate northward into Central Texas through the remainder of the day. We`re beginning to see some isolated to scattered diurnally- driven showers and storms develop within this plume of moisture. This trend will continue through the afternoon, with all activity waning near sunset this evening. While another hot afternoon is expected today, temperatures will remain below 100 degrees for most locations and potentially only in the 80s for portions of Central Texas where increasing cloud cover and the highest coverage of showers and storms are expected. The increase in moisture will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Urban areas across the Metroplex will likely only fall into the upper 70s. Sunday will be a bit warmer as slightly stronger ridging builds into the region. While actual temperatures will still remain below 100 degrees for most of the area, heat index values between 100-105 degrees are expected for nearly all locations. The plume of Gulf moisture will have shifted further south and east by tomorrow, resulting in little to no chance for rain. The main exception will be east of I-35 and south of I-20 where we can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/ The first half of this upcoming week will feature gradually warming temperatures as the upper ridging mentioned in the short term forecast discussion above continues to slowly build east into the Southern Plains. With the high center staying to our west, we`ll be spared from the hottest of temperatures as the region stays planted under a well-defined col. Afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s to just above 100 combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will push peak heat indices near/above the century mark Monday through Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in portions of the region during this time, so expect heat headlines to make their return into the forecast. Thankfully the heat will not be prolonged as the ridge will be shunted back westward in response to a digging longwave trough that is progged to move across the eastern CONUS during mid-late week. At the surface, an associated cold front will move south, passing through through North and Central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. In response to the increased lift from the front and minor shortwave disturbances moving around the base of the trough, showers and storms will be possible beginning late Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes. Unsettled weather will linger through the end of the week as additional disturbances move overhead. Latest most likely 72-hour rainfall accumulations through Friday morning are 0.50"-1", with isolated higher amounts up to 1.5"- 2". As this does not encompass Friday afternoon, rainfall totals will change in the coming forecasts, so check back frequently for new updates. Thanks to the frontal passage and rain-cooled air, afternoon temperatures will drop to below normal for this time of year. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s to kick off the weekend. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ ...VFR with south flow... No significant weather concerns to aviation are anticipated across the region once the afternoon storms across Central Texas dissipate around sunset. Additional storms are not expected overnight. Any storms that develop on Sunday will likely stay to east/southeast of the TAF sites where moisture and instability will be the most abundant. Scattered to broken Cu will dissipate this evening but will return mid to late morning Sunday. A south wind will continue in the 6 to 12 knot range along with occasional higher daytime gusts. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 79 100 80 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 74 96 75 98 75 / 10 5 0 0 0 Paris 74 94 75 95 76 / 0 5 5 5 0 Denton 74 99 77 100 77 / 0 5 0 0 0 McKinney 75 97 77 99 77 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 77 99 79 100 80 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 74 95 75 97 75 / 5 10 5 0 0 Corsicana 75 97 77 98 77 / 10 20 0 0 0 Temple 73 95 74 97 73 / 10 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 99 74 100 75 / 0 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$