Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
389 FXUS64 KFWD 140500 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Monday/ Earlier showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated across North and Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm conditions prevailing. We`ll see south winds 5-10 mph overnight with temperatures only falling into the mid 70s. On Sunday, stronger ridging that has been centered over the western CONUS will shift a little farther eastward into the Plains accompanied by some drier air. This will mean an upward tick in temperatures through the afternoon, although deeper mixing should allow dewpoints to fall into the mid/upper 60s. With high temperatures in the upper 90s, we`ll see heat indices approach 105 in a few locations. Rainfall chances will be considerably lower on Sunday afternoon with drier air replacing the deeper moisture we had on Saturday. We still can`t rule out an isolated storm across our far eastern our southeastern counties, but PoPs will generally be 10% or less. The warmth will continue on Monday with several locations at or just above 100 degrees along with near zero rain chances. Heat indices may creep up above 105 in several locations and we`ll be assessing the need for a Heat Advisory across parts of North Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/ The first half of this upcoming week will feature gradually warming temperatures as the upper ridging mentioned in the short term forecast discussion above continues to slowly build east into the Southern Plains. With the high center staying to our west, we`ll be spared from the hottest of temperatures as the region stays planted under a well-defined col. Afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s to just above 100 combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will push peak heat indices near/above the century mark Monday through Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in portions of the region during this time, so expect heat headlines to make their return into the forecast. Thankfully the heat will not be prolonged as the ridge will be shunted back westward in response to a digging longwave trough that is progged to move across the eastern CONUS during mid-late week. At the surface, an associated cold front will move south, passing through through North and Central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. In response to the increased lift from the front and minor shortwave disturbances moving around the base of the trough, showers and storms will be possible beginning late Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes. Unsettled weather will linger through the end of the week as additional disturbances move overhead. Latest most likely 72-hour rainfall accumulations through Friday morning are 0.50"-1", with isolated higher amounts up to 1.5"- 2". As this does not encompass Friday afternoon, rainfall totals will change in the coming forecasts, so check back frequently for new updates. Thanks to the frontal passage and rain-cooled air, afternoon temperatures will drop to below normal for this time of year. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s to kick off the weekend. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Monday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 80 100 80 / 0 5 5 0 0 Waco 75 97 75 99 75 / 10 5 0 0 0 Paris 72 95 76 96 76 / 5 5 5 0 0 Denton 75 99 78 101 77 / 0 5 5 0 0 McKinney 74 97 78 99 77 / 0 5 5 0 0 Dallas 77 99 80 101 80 / 0 5 5 0 0 Terrell 72 96 76 98 75 / 5 5 5 0 0 Corsicana 72 97 76 98 77 / 10 5 5 0 0 Temple 73 95 74 98 73 / 10 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$