545
FXUS64 KFWD 142307
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

An upper level ridge will continue to build in across our CWA,
keeping temperatures high and rain chances low. Low temperatures
tonight will hover in the mid 70s with some locations in
Dallas/Fort Worth only cooling to around 80 degrees. As Monday
morning arrives, temperatures will climb into the triple digits,
with heat index values topping into the 104-106 range by the
afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday`s hot
conditions for the DFW Metroplex and northeastern counties. Due to
aggressive mixing, dewpoints have remained in the upper 60s,
limiting heat index maximums over the day today. This daytime
over-mixing is expected to decrease over the next few days as
trends continue to indicate heat index values climbing while the
ridge over our forecast region continues to sharpen.

High temperatures into Tuesday are expected to continue crossing the
100 degree mark, as the likelihood of extending the Heat Advisory
into our southernmost counties continues to increase. This trend
of warming heat index values into the 105+ degree range will
continue until chances of precipitation return later in the week.


Davis

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the
first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the
influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned
in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will
peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy
heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107
degrees).

An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the
Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge
center further west and sending a cold front southward. This
displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple
of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s
to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees.
Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded
through the first half of the week, but this will come in further
forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing.
Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each
other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an
earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front
moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon,
while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late
Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures
will be impacted.

As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave
disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift
necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front
as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time,
severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped
sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional
disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled
weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
possible through the weekend.

Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of
the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal
temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s
to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of
summer.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected to continue into the overnight period, with
south winds of 10-15 knots shifting southwest as the day progresses.
No significant aviation concerns are expected through the day
Monday.

Davis

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 101  80 101  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                76 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  77  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              77 101  79 103  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78 100  79 100  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80 102  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  98  77  98  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77  98  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75 101  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$