768
FXUS64 KFWD 151749
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Tuesday/

Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North
Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across
Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge
will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the
region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of
100 degrees in most areas.

The relatively minor piece of good news is that we`ll experience
deep mixing on both afternoons, and this will allow relatively
drier mid-level air to reach the surface, particularly west of
I-35 and south of I-20. The net effect of this is that heat
indices in and near these zones, while still hot, will not be too
outrageous considering that ambient air temperatures will be over
100 degrees. The same can`t be said for our far eastern counties,
however. Dewpoints in this region will hang tough in the 70s both
afternoons, yielding indices in the 105-111 range. The Heat
Advisory has been extended through Tuesday to account for these
trends, incorporating the same geographic configuration as the one
issued previously.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

Another hot and mostly sunny day is expected Wednesday ahead of a
weather pattern change that will bring increased rain chances and
slightly cooler temperatures toward the end of the work week.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 102 degrees Wednesday
with peak heat index values 102 to 107 degree range.

A shortwave trough digging south across the Plains will send a
cold front toward North Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday.
This boundary will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm
development through Thursday and Friday as it gradually progresses
southward and mixes out over Central Texas. Current consensus is
for FROPA to reach our Red River counties late Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening reaching our southern counties late in the
day Thursday. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be highest
along/east of I-35 where lower mid-level heights and deeper
moisture are expected to overlap. Additionally, coverage will
likely reach its highest point each afternoon/evening during peak
heating in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. Most locations
will see a general 0.2-0.5" of rain through Friday with a 10%
chance for isolated totals greater than 1.5" east of I-35.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few more robust
storms could produce isolated severe wind gusts. Subtle mid-
level height rises may allow for mostly dry weather on Saturday
across the region. However, persistent troughing over the Plains
will keep unsettled weather in the forecast later in the weekend
with another round of more widespread rain chances looking more
probable in the Sunday- Monday timeframe.

Along with the increased rain chances, the late week cold front
will bring slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s expected Thursday and Friday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday afternoon, as a ridge
of upper level high pressure continues to dominate the region. A
southerly to southwesterly wind flow will continue this afternoon
through Tuesday, with sustained wind speeds averaging 9-14 knots.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81 102  81 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco               100  76 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               96  78  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton             101  78 103  79 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney           100  79 102  80 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas             101  80 103  81 101 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             97  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           98  77 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              97  73 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  76 103  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$