961
FXUS64 KFWD 152317
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Very little pattern change expected over the next 24 hours with a
cycle of hot days and warm nights continuing in response to the
expanding mid level ridge over the Four Corners region.
Adjustments have been made to dewpoints, a few to several degrees
below the current NBM guidance, to account for the persistent deep
vertical mixing that has been allowing dewpoints to mix out on
these hot afternoons. This can mean the difference between heat
index values reaching Heat Advisory criteria or not.
Unfortunately, with triple digit temperatures becoming more
widespread on Tuesday afternoon, portions of North and Central
Texas will still reach the advisory threshold in spite of vigorous
afternoon mixing. The current configuration of the advisory
remains reasonable so there are no plans to expand this product at
this time.

12

Previous Discussion:
/This afternoon through Tuesday/

Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North
Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across
Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge
will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the
region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of
100 degrees in most areas.

The relatively minor piece of good news is that we`ll experience
deep mixing on both afternoons, and this will allow relatively
drier mid-level air to reach the surface, particularly west of
I-35 and south of I-20. The net effect of this is that heat
indices in and near these zones, while still hot, will not be too
outrageous considering that ambient air temperatures will be over
100 degrees. The same can`t be said for our far eastern counties,
however. Dewpoints in this region will hang tough in the 70s both
afternoons, yielding indices in the 105-111 range. The Heat
Advisory has been extended through Tuesday to account for these
trends, incorporating the same geographic configuration as the one
issued previously.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward
across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating
upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the
Plains. The front is progged to arrive in our northwestern counties
late Wednesday morning/early afternoon and will slowly continue
south throughout the day. High temperatures will still be able to
peak in the 90s to just above 100, with heat indices ranging from
99 out west to 107 in the east.

Lift from both the front itself and its associated mid-level
disturbance will work with the available moisture to produce
scattered showers and storms along the boundary as it advances
southward. While the overall severe threat with this initial
activity is low, inherent instability, a well-mixed low-level
atmosphere (inverted V profiles), and steep DCAPE would promote a
primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. We`ll
keep an eye on this potential and adjust messaging as more high-
resolution models begin to cover this period. The front will
eventually wash out over south Central Texas on Thursday and
provide a focusing point for additional convective development to
end out the work week.

Mid-level troughing will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through early next week, keeping on and off rain chances going
through at least the weekend. Coverage in showers and storms will
increase by Sunday as 2+" PWATs begin to surge northward from the
Gulf. Guidance is indicating at least a wetting rainfall (at
least 0.25") across the region, with higher rainfall totals
expected in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

The post-frontal airmass and continued rain chances will keep
temperatures below normal with morning lows in the 60s/70s and
highs in the 80s/90s through Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the current TAF period
with south winds generally below 15 knots and intermittent gusts
to around 20 knots, especially in the afternoon and evening. No
significant aviation concerns are expected through the next 30
hours.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 102  80 100  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                76 101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Paris               78  99  77  96  72 /   0   0   0  20  40
Denton              78 103  78 100  73 /   0   0   0  10  30
McKinney            79 102  79  99  73 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dallas              81 103  80 101  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             77 100  77  98  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
Corsicana           77 101  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              74 101  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       76 104  77  99  73 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$