872
FXUS64 KFWD 080020
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Convection associated with a far outer band of Beryl affected much
of Southeast and Central Texas this afternoon, but this activity
is beginning to dissipate as of 7 PM with loss of heating. A
robust outflow boundary resulting from this activity is still
moving NW through DFW and surrounding areas at the current time,
and this feature has a history of producing wind gusts of 35-50
mph. Meanwhile, our attention will turn to upstream convective
activity in Oklahoma, where a couple of convective segments are
making southeastward progress towards North Texas at this time.
While some decline in this convection is expected this evening,
some thunderstorm activity is expected to affect areas near the
Red River at a minimum after dark, and could conceivably spread as
far south as the I-20 corridor by Monday morning. Localized
hail/wind threats may exist, especially in areas near and north of
Highway 380. No meaningful changes were necessary in terms of the
heavy rain amount/location associated with Beryl for tomorrow and
tomorrow night, and no configuration changes were needed for the
Flood Watch with this update.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact
with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures
topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of
thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern
end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the
rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing
southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of
North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little
uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary,
but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North
Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some
20% PoPs to account for this.

Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading
through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern
counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30%
PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a
decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into
Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms
across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight
into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble
handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may
make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50%
coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest
counties and north of I-20.

Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be
spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in
coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours
Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major
changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a
slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest
rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and
southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all
of our eastern counties through Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from
the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across
our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air
will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient
of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This
boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a
focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our
Central Texas counties.

With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of
Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft
Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will
gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow
returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent
will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon
showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage
generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into
the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105
each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

An outflow boundary has swept through the Metroplex TAF sites
within the past hour resulting in gusty southeasterly winds,
although it was unaccompanied by any shower or thunderstorm
activity as convection has largely dissipated. A fairly tranquil
overnight period will follow despite an active radar presentation
to both the north and south of the TAF sites. Upstream convection
in Oklahoma may attempt to move towards or into D10 very late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, while additional activity
associated with the outer bands of Beryl begins pivoting
northward from Southeast Texas. This will culminate in multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with the
greatest time of impact likely occurring from late morning
through the afternoon. During this time window, the remnants of
Beryl and its main precipitation will be passing nearby, and
should contribute to periodic shower and thunderstorms especially
near and east of the TAF sites. Widespread MVFR cigs should also
be expected, with further degraded cig/vsby conditions present
within areas of precip. This system will also lead to breezy ENE
surface winds of 15-20 kts and gusts near 30 kts during the
daytime. As the remnants of Beryl progress off to the northeast at
the end of the TAF period, rain chances will come to an end,
although low cigs may prevail into the evening with northerly
winds.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  87  70  90  73 /  20  80  40  10   5
Waco                75  85  70  91  72 /  20  80  30  10  10
Paris               73  85  67  86  68 /  40  90  80  30  10
Denton              72  87  68  91  69 /  20  70  30  10   5
McKinney            74  85  68  89  70 /  30  80  60  20   5
Dallas              77  87  70  91  73 /  20  80  50  20   5
Terrell             75  85  69  89  70 /  30  90  70  20   5
Corsicana           77  85  71  91  73 /  30  90  60  20  10
Temple              75  85  70  92  72 /  30  70  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       71  87  68  91  68 /  10  60  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$