176
FXUS63 KFSD 161932
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
232 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small threat for isolated severe storms on late this afternoon
into the early evening, the better chances in south central SD.

- Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal through the
weekend.

- Next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

After a small window late this afternoon where a few showers and
thunderstorms in south central SD will be possible, drier air will
settle in as high pressure at the surface builds. There will
also be a threat for very isolated showers, possibly a rumble of
thunder, in parts of southwest MN this evening, but severe
weather is not expected. This will bring quiet weather tonight
with dew points remaining in the lower 60s or dropping a bit. By
morning, lows should fall into the upper 50s in most locations.

Wednesday may start with some patchy fog, but will turn into a
mostly sunny and mild day as dew points further fall into the mid
50s. Highs will top out mostly in the 70s with winds remaining on
the lighter side as surface high pressure is stubborn to exit the
area.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will see cool high pressure in
place east of I-29 which will support some very cool morning lows in
the lower 50s. Central SD should see some southerly flow so lows
will be closer to 55 to 60.

A wave will top the ridge in Montana Thursday night and settle south
on Friday. This will bring stronger warm advection in the low to mid
levels with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Models soundings indicate about 1500 J/kg CAPE with minor deep shear
so locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms should be the main
threat. The better chances appear to be Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday look to remain below normal.

Once this wave dips south, models are becoming more agreeable that
an upper level low will dawdle around the Central Plains into early
next week which would keep some cloud cover in place, periodic
chances for showers and storms (especially diurnally driven) and
continued below normal temperatures. The main threats during this
time would be very local heavy rain with a good chance for very slow
storm motion if something develops.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered showers will move from west to east today but for now
the impacts will be very limited. A stronger storm or two will
be possible in south central SD later this afternoon but
confidence is very low on development. Some patchy MVFR to IFR
fog will be possible late tonight and very early Wednesday
morning but confidence on this is also low.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08