509
FNUS75 KFGZ 161004
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Reservation Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MST on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur
between 1200 PM-800 PM MST. Gusty, erratic winds of 35-45 mph will
be possible in and around thunderstorms, along with heavy rainfall
and small hail. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with
storms developing after 1100 AM MST. Outside of thunderstorms, expect
mainly light winds and near-normal temperatures. Afternoon RH values
will be in the teens to low 20s with good overnight recoveries.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny to partly sunny. Haze in the morning with
                    areas of smoke through the day. Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming more
                    likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent after 1200 PM MST.
Max temperature.....85 to 87.
Min humidity........15 to 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds 35-45 mph expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Clearing Index......728.
Mixing height.......11200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 14800
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    3300 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots shifting to the east late
                    in the morning, then shifting to the northwest
                    in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Areas of smoke in the evening with
                    haze expected through the night.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent before 8 PM MST.
Min temperature.....50 to 54.
Max humidity........70 to 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to northeast winds around 5 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent after 1100 AM MST.
Max temperature.....85 to 87.
Min humidity........20 to 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds 35-45 mph expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1523.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13200
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    400 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 knots shifting to the
                    southeast in the late morning and afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...MEOLA
Requested by...Christina Brannon
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418005.21/FGZ
.DELDT 07/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christina.brannon@usda.gov