636
FNUS75 KFGZ 132157
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Duck Lake Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MST on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with showers and
thunderstorms likely each afternoon. Winds will remain generally light
except for the usual gusty and erratic winds near any storms.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph until 3:00 AM shifting to
                    north at 5 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 0 knots.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph until Noon shifting
                    to the south at 5 to 10 in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LAL.................5.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12000
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    200 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots shifting to the southeast
                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    southwest late in the afternoon.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    evening, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds until 8:00 PM becoming
                    north around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 knots.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers in the morning,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12200
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    1900 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots shifting to the northwest
                    late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...MCCOLLUM
Requested by...Travis Thompson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417967.0/FGZ
.DELDT 07/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL naomi.corkish@usda.gov,joseph.hoppe@usda.gov,andrew.zimmerman2@usda.gov,travis.thompson@usda.gov,thomas.lopez@usda.gov