969
FNUS75 KFGZ 152030
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Reservation Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
130 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MST on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Monsoonal showers and storms have already developed
in the area of the fire this afternoon. These will likely produce
outflow winds that will impact the fire. Additional monsoonal
activity is expected for this afternoon and evening, though it`s
possible noting will form directly over the fire. Cooler
temperatures and elevated RHs are expected thanks to storms.

Tuesday`s forecast will be similar to today`s weather with
showers and storms forming late in the morning/early in the
afternoon. West to northwest winds will eventually become outflow
dominated. Temps will quickly warming into the 80s before clouds
start to limit warming. RHs will remain elevated, only dropping
into the 20s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Clearing Index......855.
Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 knots shifting to the north
                    after 3 am.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely after 1000 and
                    persisting through the day.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......557.
Mixing height.......10400 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13800
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    1200 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 knots.

$$
Forecaster...ROAKES
Requested by...Christina Brannon
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418005.17/FGZ
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christina.brannon@usda.gov