941
FXUS65 KFGZ 270522
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions
continue through the weekend, outside of light afternoon showers
around the White Mountains. More widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to set in by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry and warmer weather pattern is expected
the remainder of this week and into the weekend. A gradual
increase in monsoonal moisture is expected next week.

Very typical late June weather is being observed this afternoon
with dry conditions, light southerly breezes, and near average
temperatures. This pattern will continue through the upcoming
weekend as very weak troughing is replaced by a building ridge of
high pressure. Temperatures will increase, reaching their peak on
Sunday/Monday. Lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai
County are starting to show potential for reaching extreme heat
criteria. The one caveat to the dry conditions will be the White
Mountains region, which is just close enough to the moisture over
New Mexico, to see an isolated shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon and again Friday.

The high pressure circulation is forecast to build over Arizona
through early next week centering near the Four Corners by
Monday/Tuesday. This, combined with a potential tropical system
moving northward along the Baja California peninsula, look to spur
the northward flow of moisture into Arizona, and thus the start of
monsoon season. We expect a gradual increase in moisture as early as
Monday, with deeper moisture potential by the mid to latter part of
next week. Precipitation chances return on Monday mostly for eastern
Arizona, and then increase and spread westward Tuesday and beyond.
As is typical with monsoon season, there will be a threat for dry
lightning, especially on Monday, but potential for wetting rain
increases by Wednesday/Thursday. The one complicating factor is
another weak trough forecast to develop just to our west next week.
Depending on how far east the trough moves, this could lead to
fluctuations in moisture through the week. Right now, the potential
for greatest precipitation appears to be over eastern and central
portions of the state. Ensemble guidance favors a consensus of
monsoon moisture remaining in the region at least into the second
week of July.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 27/06Z through Saturday 28/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Areas CU/TCU over southern Apache County redeveloping by
18Z-20Z Friday, with ISOLD high-based -SHRA/-TSRA possible INVOF the
White Mtns for the same time frame. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 28/06Z through Monday 30/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Areas CU/TCU over southern Apache County each afternoon
with ISOLD high-based -SHRA/-TSRA possible over the White Mtns. This
daytime convective activity may push westward a bit each day, due to
outflows, but confidence is low. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Mainly dry and warm
conditions, outside of a slight chance for high-based showers and
thunderstorms near the White Mountains on Friday. Minimum RH values
between 5-15% each day. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around
thunderstorms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warmer and mainly dry conditions on Sunday.
Could see a few high based thunderstorms over the White Mountains,
Chuskas and East Mogollon Rim Monday as some Monsoon moisture begins
to sneak in.  A chance of thunderstorms area wide is possible
Tuesday as more monsoon moisture moves in.  Minimum RH values 5-15%
on Sunday and Monday, increasing to 15-25% on Tuesday.  Wind SW-W 5-
15 mph Sunday and Monday, S-SW 5-15 mph Tuesday.  Gusty, erratic
winds possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff