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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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894 FXUS65 KFGZ 110902 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 202 AM MST Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the start of this week, with a drying trend possible by the second-half of the the week. Temperatures will be near-normal, along with generally light winds outside of storms. && .DISCUSSION...Today and Tonight...Overnight showers and thunderstorms continue over far northern AZ near the UT border. Widespread cloud cover looks to remain over much of the area through the overnight as well, which should delay convective initiation later today. Scattered storms should initiate over the higher terrain by around noon, gradually moving northward and increasing in coverage through the afternoon. Given PWATs around an inch most everywhere and slower storm motion around 5-10 kts, flash flooding will be the primary threat. HREF PMM guidance mainly signals towards the greatest flash flood risk being over northwest AZ. Thus, area slow canyons near the AZ/UT border will be at risk for flash flooding for much of this afternoon. Without any strong synoptic forcing and the slow start to convection, confidence isn`t high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch over these areas at this time, but this doesn`t lessen the risk. More widespread activity looks to develop as a hi-res guidance indicate the potential for an MCS moving northward from the Lower Deserts later this evening and into the overnight hours. Thus, another round of heavy rainfall looks possible across central AZ and potentially into northern AZ for the overnight. Latest HRRR runs continue to back off on this, so confidence isn`t all that high. Monday and Tuesday...Monsoonal moisture remains in place for the start of the week, keeping daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in place across much of the area. Flash flooding will continue to be the main threats, but an isolated strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out. The greatest coverage areas may vary from day to day, as any overnight convection will play a significant role on how quickly the atmosphere can recover and thus where storms initiate. Wednesday through Saturday...By the middle of the week, the jet begins to become a bit more wavy, and the monsoonal high begins to shift. Much of the global ensemble members show a downturn in moisture sometime later this week. The exact timing of this downturn is uncertain, with the EPS and CMCE means showing Wednesday and the GEFS mean a bit later. With lessening moisture and higher heights, temperatures should also begin to gradually increase through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...Sunday 11/06Z through Monday 12/06Z...Expect cloudy skies and isolated -SHRA overnight. Most activity along and north of a KRQE-KINW-KPRC line. Stronger cells may produce brief MVFR visibilities. Another round of scattered to numerous storms will develop again after 18Z-20Z Sunday. Winds will generally be light, except in the vicinity of storms where outflow winds may exceed 30 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 12/06Z through Wednesday 14/06Z...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day from 18Z-03Z. Stronger storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR visibilities. Light winds except near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage today and Monday. Heavy rain and strong outflow winds will continue to be the primary storm threats. Otherwise, expect near average temperatures and light west to southwest prevailing winds each day. Tuesday through Thursday...A good chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Tuesday, with a drying trend and decreased storm coverage by Wednesday and Thursday. Generally light southwest winds 10 to 15 mph are forecast each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff