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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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530 FXUS65 KFGZ 082102 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 202 PM MST Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through mid-week, with chances for showers/thunderstorms gradually increasing each day starting on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Dry and hot conditions remain over northern Arizona today as high pressure continues to wobble around the southwest. The high will also allow for smoke from wildfires in southern Utah to drift southward into much of northern Arizona. Hazy skies are expected as a result, with some surface smoke possible during the overnight hours, especially near Page and Grand Canyon. Tuesday through Thursday...Northerly flow will continues to advect warm, dry air from the Great Basin. However, moisture does start to creep back north, allowing for preciptation chances to increase south of the Mogollon Rim and in White Mountains on Tuesday. Any shower or thunderstorm that does develop should be isolated and fairly minimal impact. Given the high-based nature, the only threat will likely be brief gusty outflow winds. Coverage in showers and thunderstorms looks to gradely increase each day as the center of the high slowly migrates eastward from the Mojave Desert to the Great Basin. Mid-level moisture continues to increase, with increasing potential for high-based showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain with each day. With the high still largely in control and minimal precipitation activity expected, high temperatures across the lower elevations will continue to be nearly 10 degrees F above normal. Excessive Heat Warnings have thus been extended through Thursday for the lower elevations of Yavapai County. Further north, the warning has been extended through Friday for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and the Page area. Friday through Sunday...By the end of the week the high shifts into a more favorable monsoonal pattern, allowing for moisture advection to increase over much of Arizona. As moisture increases, storm activity should increases through the weekend and become less high- based as a more typical monsoon pattern develops. Temperatures should also begin to cool to more typical levels with lower heights and increased cloud cover. Excessive Heat Warnings will continue through Friday for the Grand Canyon and Page area, but that should hopefully be the end of this heat wave. && .AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions through the TAF period, with generally light northerly winds. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities, especially near KPGA and KGCN. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, winds light and variable at 5-10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms spreading westward from near the White Mountains on Tuesday, to along (and south) of the Rim on Wednesday. Northerly winds 10-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries to 20-35% over northwest Arizona, 35-50% over central and eastern Arizona. Thursday through Saturday...Hot but with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Daytime winds light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. Minimum RH gradually rising each day from 5-18% on Thursday to 10-25% on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005-006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff