664
FXUS65 KFGZ 102141
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
241 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
through early next week, with a drying trend possible mid to late
week. Temperatures will be near normal with light winds outside
of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The high pressure over Texas that nosed into east-
central and southeast Arizona this morning is weakening and moving
back eastward. This brought a decrease in convective activity
today with mostly light showers over the White Mountains.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms formed over much of the rest of
northern Arizona today. Some of the storms produced heavy rain
and gusty winds. Storms will continue through the afternoon and
decrease some this evening. However, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may continue through the night especially from the
Four Corners to northwestern Coconino County.

By Sunday afternoon, moisture and instability will increase again
with higher storm chances. Slow storm motions again Sunday mean
that there will be a threat of localized heavy rain/flooding
along with the usual small hail/gusty winds. Monday into Tuesday,
a trough along the West Coast will start to move inland. This
will eventually turn our flow along around to the south to
southwest. However, moisture will remain in place over Arizona and
we could see some enhancement of showers and thunderstorms, even
during the overnight hours Monday night. Wednesday through
Friday, the GFS and EC diverge some. The EC is showing drier air
moving in from the southwest while the GFS keeps moisture over
Arizona. Current forecast leans more with the drier EC.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 10/18Z through Sunday 11/18Z...Expect
scattered SHRA/TSRA to develop along and west of a KPRC - KFLG -
KRQE line with isolated activity to the east. Strong outflow winds
up to 45 kts and locally heavy rain causing brief MVFR/IFR
conditions are the main storm concerns. Outside of convection,
expect SW winds around 10 kts. The best chances for continuing
storm activity this evening will be west of a KPRC - KFLG line.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 11/18Z through Tuesday 13/18Z...Expect daily
convective activity from 18Z-03Z each day. Stronger cells may
produce MVFR / brief local IFR conditions. Light winds outside of
convective activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue today, especially across northwestern
Arizona. Expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage Sunday and
Monday. Heavy rain and strong outflow winds will continue to be the
primary storm threats. Otherwise, expect near average temperatures
and west to southwest prevailing winds each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue each afternoon and evening, with a drying
trend and decreased storm coverage by Wednesday and Thursday.
Generally light southwest winds 10 to 15 mph are forecast each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff