397
FXUS65 KFGZ 010931
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
231 AM MST Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures continue today, before cooling off
through week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday, with increasing coverage each day. Drier and warmer
conditions return for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A closed low remains off the California coast
this morning and a ridge is centered over New Mexico. The flow
between these two features will give us a strong southerly fetch and
will advect moisture into our area for the next few days. This
increase in moisture will allow for more clouds to develop across
the region along with showers and thunderstorms. Best chances still
remain across the higher terrain and eastern areas but the moisture
surge will allow for more widespread coverage than we have had the
past couple of days. With some areas still on the drier side in the
sub-cloud layer, there will still be a threat for dry thunderstorms
today, though some areas may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles.
Gusty outflow winds around 40-50 mph are possible from any storms
that develop.

Today is also the last of the very hot days this week. Temperatures
will reach 110 degrees in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
and the Extreme Heat Warning continue through this evening. Cloud
cover will be increasing across the state, which should help to keep
the temperatures in check and not as hot as they have been the past
few days.

Wednesday through Thursday...The ridge settles to our east, which
will keep a good southerly fetch across the region through Thursday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as
moisture surges into the region. The low starts to lift and cross
the region, enhancing lift across our area. Good cloud cover each
day will help to keep temperatures cooler for at a couple of days.

Friday through the weekend...As the low passes to the north and
east, we see a more westerly flow push in and with that will come
drier air. The models want to clear the moisture out pretty quickly
but it is likely we will hang onto a little bit of moisture on
Friday, maybe just across eastern areas and there may still be a few
isolated showers or storms. By Saturday, we dry out appreciably in
the lower levels and any lingering moisture in the mid levels will
only result in some cloud development. Temperatures will start to
warm for the weekend. Heading into the new week, we see a trough
start to redevelop to the west and this will turn the flow more
southwest to south and once again allow for moisture to return.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 01/06Z through Wednesday 02/06Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
develops after 18Z, mainly south and west of a KGCN-KINW-KJTC line.
Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible in and around TS.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds E/SE 5-15 kts overnight,
becoming SE-SW after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 02/06Z through Friday 04/06Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
each afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. Gusty winds and
brief MVFR conditions possible in and around TS. MVFR VIZ possible
in HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby wildfire. VFR conditions
are otherwise expected with daytime winds S/SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Scattered high-based showers
and thunderstorms today, becoming widespread on Wednesday as
moisture increases. Dry thunderstorms and strong outflow winds
remain a concern today. S-SW winds 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph
today, becoming more westerly on Wednesday. Gusty and erratic winds
in and around thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected Thursday, becoming isolated on Friday, and
then dry on Saturday. SW-W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph each
day. Gusty and erratic winds in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff