460
FXUS65 KFGZ 131043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 AM MST Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The chance of showers and thunderstorms continues
today before drier conditions set in starting Wednesday. Monsoonal
moisture then looks to gradually return by the weekend. Near-
normal temperatures through mid week will become above normal by
late week, along with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few outflow boundaries combined with elevated
moisture values and a weak disturbance are keeping some showers
and thunderstorms going early this morning over southern Apache
and Navajo counties. This activity should dissipate by around
sunrise. The monsoon high has continued to shift off to the east
as a trough moves into the Pac NW. Satellite estimates of precipitable
water are showing some drying moving in from the west, and this
should result in a bit lower coverage of storms later today
compared to the past few days. Storm motion will also increase as
this trough approaches, with today`s storms moving toward the
east-northeast around 10-15 mph, lessening the overall threat of
excessive rainfall in any one location. After storms end this
evening, the decreasing moisture values and a developing mid-level
cap will shut off storms over northern Arizona on Wednesday and
Thursday. Earlier models runs indicated better moisture returning
Friday as the high becomes re-established over New Mexico, but
have backed off on Friday`s storm chances. The model blend is now
indicating only a 20% chance for the White Mtns Friday with less
than 10% elsewhere. By Saturday and through early next week, with
the high center persisting over New Mexico and west Texas,
southerly flow over Arizona should result in an increase in
moisture and storm chances returning to our region each day. With
the high being fairly strong, daytime highs are likely to be
5-10 degrees hotter than normal especially in eastern Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 13/12Z through Wednesday 14/12Z...SCT
SHRA/TSRA expected 19Z-02Z, mainly N/E of a P53-KPAN line. Some
lingering SHRA is possible N/E of a KPGA-KRQE line through 07Z.
Gusty winds up to 40 kts and MVFR conditions expected near +RA/TS.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with W/SW winds around 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 14/12Z through Friday 16/12Z...VFR conditions
with daytime winds W/SW around 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again today, with mostly dry conditions
setting in by Wednesday. Heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will be
the main threats with any thunderstorms. Otherwise, daytime winds
west/southwest around 10 mph with near-normal temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions remain through Friday,
before chances for showers and storms return by Saturday. Daytime
winds west/southwest around 10 mph with temperatures 5-10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff