Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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749 FXUS65 KFGZ 140334 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 834 PM MST Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms across northeast Arizona will slowly diminish through the night before much drier conditions set in starting Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture then looks to gradually return by the weekend. Near-normal temperatures through mid week will become above normal by late week, along with generally light winds. && .UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms continued across the northeast corner of the state during the mid-evening hours, gradually diminishing in coverage and intensity. Most of this activity is expected to come to an end around midnight with a stray shower/storm or two the remainder of the night. The forecast is generally in good shape but did lower precipitation chances across the northeast after midnight to account for the diminishing trend being observed. && .PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/...Active day across northern Arizona today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these produced locally heavy rain. Drier air is already moving into western Yavapai and Coconino Counties as a trough of low pressure is moving through the Pacific Northwest and an area of high pressure off the California coast is moving eastward. This pattern will continue to move dry air over Arizona as the high slowly moves eastward across our state. Some moisture hanging on over far east central Arizona may be enough to produce isolated storms on Wednesday from around Heber eastward . High temperatures will climb to 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of the year as the high pressure transects out state. By Saturday, the area of high pressure will move far enough east to allow a more moist southerly flow to develop again over Arizona. This will bring back daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and lower high temperatures. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 14/00Z through Thursday 15/00Z...Look for VFR conditions. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will mostly dissipate by 07Z. Outside of erratic outflow winds of up to 35 kts, anticipate light winds overnight becoming southwest at 10-20 kts Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/00Z through Saturday 17/00Z...VFR conditions are forecast with afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts. Look for light winds less than 10 kts at night with a stray afternoon shower/thunderstorm possible south of KSOW. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warmer. A slight chance of a stray afternoon shower/thunderstorm over the White Mountains. Daytime winds southwest at 5-15 mph with afternoon RH values dipping to 15-25 percent. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions remain over most of the area on Friday with only a slight chance of storms over the White Mountains. Much better chances for showers and storms return on Saturday and Sunday. Daytime winds southwesterly 5-15 mph with temperatures cooling some with the return of monsoon moisture. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/MAS AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff