199
FXUS65 KFGZ 140427
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 PM MST Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms across northeast Arizona will
slowly diminish through the night before much drier conditions
set in starting Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture then looks to
gradually return by the weekend. Near-normal temperatures through
mid week will become above normal by late week, along with
generally light winds.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms continued across the northeast
corner of the state during the mid-evening hours, gradually
diminishing in coverage and intensity. Most of this activity is
expected to come to an end around midnight with a stray
shower/storm or two the remainder of the night. The forecast is
generally in good shape but did lower precipitation chances across
the northeast after midnight to account for the diminishing trend
being observed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/...Active day across northern
Arizona today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of
these produced locally heavy rain. Drier air is already moving
into western Yavapai and Coconino Counties as a trough of low
pressure is moving through the Pacific Northwest and an area of
high pressure off the California coast is moving eastward. This
pattern will continue to move dry air over Arizona as the high
slowly moves eastward across our state. Some moisture hanging on
over far east central Arizona may be enough to produce isolated
storms on Wednesday from around Heber eastward . High temperatures
will climb to 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of the
year as the high pressure transects out state.

By Saturday, the area of high pressure will move far enough east
to allow a more moist southerly flow to develop again over
Arizona. This will bring back daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms and lower high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 14/06Z through Thursday 15/06Z...Look for
VFR conditions. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will mostly
dissipate by 07Z. Outside of erratic outflow winds of up to 35
kts, anticipate light winds overnight becoming southwest at 10-20
kts Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Expect afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts
with light winds less than 10 kts at night. A stray afternoon
shower/thunderstorm possible south of KSOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warmer. A slight
chance of a stray afternoon shower/thunderstorm over the White
Mountains. Daytime winds southwest at 5-15 mph with afternoon RH
values dipping to 15-25 percent.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions remain over most of the area
on Friday with only a slight chance of storms over the White
Mountains. Much better chances for showers and storms return on
Saturday and Sunday. Daytime winds southwesterly 5-15 mph with
temperatures cooling some with the return of monsoon moisture.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MAS
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff