704
FXUS65 KFGZ 141035
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
335 AM MST Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Much drier conditions arrive today and continue
through Friday with afternoon temperatures gradually rising above
normal. Monsoonal moisture then looks to gradually return by the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough passing north of the state late Tuesday
evening into early this morning helped keep showers going
overnight in northeast Arizona but these are ending now. Strong
ridging is occurring from off the Southern California coast into
southwest Arizona and westerly flow on the north side of this
feature is pushing much drier air into our region. Satellite
estimated precipitable water values are falling from west to east,
down to near 0.50" in NW Arizona. These lower values will continue
to push eastward today and linger on Thursday, leading to a total
shutdown of monsoon storms outside of an isolated storm near the
White Mountains. Daytime high temperatures will warm to a few
degrees above normal as high pressure builds. By Friday, the
center of high pressure is forecast to be centered over New Mexico
where it will remain through early next week. Southerly flow on
the west side of the ridge will be favorable for a return of
monsoon moisture to northern Arizona during this time. Friday
looks like the moisture is just beginning to return, and with some
mid-level capping still in place we don`t have storms in the
forecast yet, but by Saturday the PoPs increase to 30-50% for most
areas with similar values into early next week. One possible
limiting factor on storm coverage is going to be the strength of
the high and associated warm air aloft. This will also allow for
daytime high temperatures to reach 5-10 degrees above seasonal
average, especially in eastern Arizona closer to the high, and in
areas that don`t get cooled down by afternoon storms. Winslow will
see highs near 100F and Window Rock in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 14/12Z through Thursday 15/12Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity
of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/12Z through Saturday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity
of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mostly dry and warmer, with
daytime winds around 10 mph from the southwest. Slight chance of an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the White Mountains.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions remain on Friday
before chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the
weekend. Slightly cooler temperatures, with daytime winds from the
southwest around 10 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff