037
FXUS65 KFGZ 141625
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Much drier conditions arrive today and continue
through Friday with afternoon temperatures gradually rising above
normal. Monsoonal moisture then looks to gradually return by the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...With dry westerly flow in place across northern AZ, it
will be fair and warm across northern Arizona today with only an
isolated shower possible across the higher terrain of eastern AZ
this afternoon. A ridge building over the Rockies this weekend
should bring a return of moist southerly flow to the area,
increasing the chances for thunderstorms once again. Current
forecast is in good shape, with no updates planned this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...A trough passing north of the
state late Tuesday evening into early this morning helped keep
showers going overnight in northeast Arizona but these are ending
now. Strong ridging is occurring from off the Southern California
coast into southwest Arizona and westerly flow on the north side
of this feature is pushing much drier air into our region.
Satellite estimated precipitable water values are falling from
west to east, down to near 0.50" in NW Arizona. These lower values
will continue to push eastward today and linger on Thursday,
leading to a total shutdown of monsoon storms outside of an
isolated storm near the White Mountains. Daytime high temperatures
will warm to a few degrees above normal as high pressure builds.
By Friday, the center of high pressure is forecast to be centered
over New Mexico where it will remain through early next week.
Southerly flow on the west side of the ridge will be favorable for
a return of monsoon moisture to northern Arizona during this
time. Friday looks like the moisture is just beginning to return,
and with some mid-level capping still in place we don`t have
storms in the forecast yet, but by Saturday the PoPs increase to
30-50% for most areas with similar values into early next week.
One possible limiting factor on storm coverage is going to be the
strength of the high and associated warm air aloft. This will also
allow for daytime high temperatures to reach 5-10 degrees above
seasonal average, especially in eastern Arizona closer to the
high, and in areas that don`t get cooled down by afternoon storms.
Winslow will see highs near 100F and Window Rock in the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 14/12Z through Thursday 15/12Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity
of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/12Z through Saturday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity
of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mostly dry and warmer, with
daytime winds around 10 mph from the southwest. Slight chance of an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the White Mountains.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions remain on Friday
before chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the
weekend. Slightly cooler temperatures, with daytime winds from the
southwest around 10 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff