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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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037 FXUS65 KFGZ 141625 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 925 AM MST Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Much drier conditions arrive today and continue through Friday with afternoon temperatures gradually rising above normal. Monsoonal moisture then looks to gradually return by the weekend and into early next week. && .UPDATE...With dry westerly flow in place across northern AZ, it will be fair and warm across northern Arizona today with only an isolated shower possible across the higher terrain of eastern AZ this afternoon. A ridge building over the Rockies this weekend should bring a return of moist southerly flow to the area, increasing the chances for thunderstorms once again. Current forecast is in good shape, with no updates planned this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...A trough passing north of the state late Tuesday evening into early this morning helped keep showers going overnight in northeast Arizona but these are ending now. Strong ridging is occurring from off the Southern California coast into southwest Arizona and westerly flow on the north side of this feature is pushing much drier air into our region. Satellite estimated precipitable water values are falling from west to east, down to near 0.50" in NW Arizona. These lower values will continue to push eastward today and linger on Thursday, leading to a total shutdown of monsoon storms outside of an isolated storm near the White Mountains. Daytime high temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal as high pressure builds. By Friday, the center of high pressure is forecast to be centered over New Mexico where it will remain through early next week. Southerly flow on the west side of the ridge will be favorable for a return of monsoon moisture to northern Arizona during this time. Friday looks like the moisture is just beginning to return, and with some mid-level capping still in place we don`t have storms in the forecast yet, but by Saturday the PoPs increase to 30-50% for most areas with similar values into early next week. One possible limiting factor on storm coverage is going to be the strength of the high and associated warm air aloft. This will also allow for daytime high temperatures to reach 5-10 degrees above seasonal average, especially in eastern Arizona closer to the high, and in areas that don`t get cooled down by afternoon storms. Winslow will see highs near 100F and Window Rock in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 14/12Z through Thursday 15/12Z...VFR conditions with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/12Z through Saturday 17/12Z...VFR conditions with SW winds around 10 kts. Slight chance for ISO SHRA in vicinity of KJTC/E24, 18Z-02Z each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mostly dry and warmer, with daytime winds around 10 mph from the southwest. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the White Mountains. Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions remain on Friday before chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend. Slightly cooler temperatures, with daytime winds from the southwest around 10 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...BAK/JJ AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff