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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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226 FXUS65 KFGZ 170848 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 150 AM MST Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms return to northern Arizona this weekend and continue into next week. Temperatures will fall a bit as moisture increases, but will still remain around normal, or even a bit above normal. && .DISCUSSION...The Monsoon moisture boundary is pushing rapidly north and west overnight. This rapid movement is being aided by 2 outflow boundaries, which originated from organized convection NE of Tucson and over Apache County Friday evening. The flow pattern is such that our entire CWA should be within the Monsoon moisture boundary by daybreak, the last vestiges of dry air are currently up around Page. The high has relocated to a favorable position east of Arizona and has amplified a bit, coinciding with a somewhat unseasonable and stable trough along the west coast. This makes for an interesting dynamic scenario. where our eastern zones are a bit on the stable side, but moist and our western zones are unstable, with shear, but fighting drier air over Nevada. Kind of a "sweet spot", where the moisture and enhanced instability/shear meet, will be over northwestern Arizona for next few days. For this reason, a FFA is in effect. We are not really looking at singular, intense, and heavy rain producing storms. More so that briefly intense, but fast-moving and perhaps severe storms, are likely to to move over the same location several times each afternoon. This is basically the pattern we are in for the remainder of the forecast package. There will be convection every day, not really widespread, but dynamically driven lines of storms are likely over western and central Arizona each day. There will be dry incursions from time to time over the northwest and the eastern zones will heat up and have days that are almost too stable, but generally, we will remain active through next week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 17/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. Until 12Z, look for isolated SHRA/TSRA east of a KPGA-KPAN line. After 12Z, isolated SHRA are forecast to develop along and west of the KPGA-KPAN line becoming numerous and mixing in with TSRA after 18Z. East of this line, isolated activity will continue. Storms gradually dissipating Saturday evening. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds in stronger storm cells. Winds outside of any storms, southwest at 5-15 kts, becoming light after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Sunday 18/06Z through Tuesday 20/06Z...Scattered SHRA/TSRA each afternoon/evening with coverage favoring areas from KPRC-KFLG-KPGA westward. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds in stronger storm cells. Away from storms, expect southerly winds 10-20 kts during the daytime. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances increase through the weekend. Storm coverage and the best chances for wetting rain will favor northwestern Arizona. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, expect southerly winds 5 to 15 mph. Monday through Wednesday...Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue. Winds will be southwest around 10 mph or less, away from any thunderstorms and/or outflows. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ this morning through 9 PM MST /10 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>007. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff