725
FXUS65 KFGZ 150949
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
250 AM MST Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through Friday, then moisture returns and
an active Monsoon pattern redevelops over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge axis has become west-east oriented and now
resides across southern Arizona. This is a stable pattern and also
blocks any moisture from moving into the region, for now. So, dry
and warm for a couple of days, then it changes.

By late Friday, the ridge moves eastward and amplifies over New
Mexico, as a trough forms in the eastern Pacific. This opens the for
for moisture return, the Monsoonal moisture pool has not retreated
very far. This flow pattern stays intact through next weekend and
perhaps much of next week. Expect a quick return to active Monsoon
conditions this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/06Z through Friday 16/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
anticipated through 18Z before breezy SW winds 10-20 kts return.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
will mostly persist through the TAF period. Expect SW winds 10-20
kts both afternoons, but possibly becoming gusty/erratic Saturday
after 18Z due to increased SHRA/TSRA potential. Greatest chance
for precipitation will be along and west of a KFLG-KPGA line and
across the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry, with above average
temperatures and afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Sky cover
will be minimal, aside from some fair-weather cumulus.

Saturday through Monday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
return quickly during this period. Daytime southerly winds 10 to 15
mph. Temperatures remain above average.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff