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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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725 FXUS65 KFGZ 150949 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 250 AM MST Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through Friday, then moisture returns and an active Monsoon pattern redevelops over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge axis has become west-east oriented and now resides across southern Arizona. This is a stable pattern and also blocks any moisture from moving into the region, for now. So, dry and warm for a couple of days, then it changes. By late Friday, the ridge moves eastward and amplifies over New Mexico, as a trough forms in the eastern Pacific. This opens the for for moisture return, the Monsoonal moisture pool has not retreated very far. This flow pattern stays intact through next weekend and perhaps much of next week. Expect a quick return to active Monsoon conditions this weekend. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/06Z through Friday 16/06Z...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light and variable winds anticipated through 18Z before breezy SW winds 10-20 kts return. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...VFR conditions will mostly persist through the TAF period. Expect SW winds 10-20 kts both afternoons, but possibly becoming gusty/erratic Saturday after 18Z due to increased SHRA/TSRA potential. Greatest chance for precipitation will be along and west of a KFLG-KPGA line and across the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry, with above average temperatures and afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Sky cover will be minimal, aside from some fair-weather cumulus. Saturday through Monday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms return quickly during this period. Daytime southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures remain above average. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff