399
FXUS65 KFGZ 152313
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
413 PM MST Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday.
Moisture starts to return to the region over the weekend with a more
active Monsoon pattern as we head into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure remains elongated over
the southwestern states, keeping a zonal flow in place. Zonal flow
is more westerly, which blocks moisture from finding its way into
the area and also brings in warmer air. The high moves little
through Friday with dry and warm conditions continuing. As we head
into the weekend, the high shifts to the east with a ridge
developing over New Mexico. This shift in the pattern will be more
favorable for moisture to return to the region and to bring the
Monsoon back to our area with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected. Some isolated to scattered storms on Friday
over the eastern parts of the White Mountains but wider coverage of
storms is expected as we move through the weekend and into next
week. This monsoonal pattern looks to hang around through much of
the coming week so keep your fingers crossed that everyone that
wants to see rain will see some rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 16/00Z through Saturday 17/00Z...Widespread VFR
conditions persist through the TAF period with little to no cloud
cover. Southwest winds, 10-20 kts, continue through 02Z, weakening
thereafter. Expect similar conditions on Friday with southwest
winds, 10-20 kts, after 17Z and isolated -SHRA/-TSRA in the White
Mountains.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/00Z through Monday 19/00Z...Scattered
chances for -SHRA/-TSRA return on Saturday and are expected each
afternoon/evening. Outside of gusty and erratic outflow winds from
any storms, plan on westerly winds, 10-20 kts, each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Saturday...Dry conditions
will continue through tonight. Moisture will start to return on
Friday in the White Mountains and over most of northern Arizona on
Saturday. Expect minimum RH values between 15-30% each afternoon.
Winds will be out of the southwest 10-20 mph becoming light and
variable during overnight.

Sunday through Tuesday...Precipitation chances increase through
Monday...and then decrease some. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow
winds, look for south through west winds 5-15 mph. Above normal
temperatures will last through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff