351
FXUS65 KFGZ 160333
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
833 PM MST Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday.
Moisture starts to return to the region over the weekend with
a more active Monsoon pattern as we head into the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...Look for clear skies and relatively cool temperatures
overnight as a dry air mass has moved over Arizona. The next
chance for a decent upswing in thunderstorm activity will be on
Saturday when monsoon moisture is forecast to return. The current
forecast is in good shape with no update needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /413 PM MST/...An area of high pressure remains
elongated over the southwestern states, keeping a zonal flow in
place. Zonal flow is more westerly, which blocks moisture from
finding its way into the area and also brings in warmer air. The
high moves little through Friday with dry and warm conditions
continuing. As we head into the weekend, the high shifts to the
east with a ridge developing over New Mexico. This shift in the
pattern will be more favorable for moisture to return to the
region and to bring the Monsoon back to our area with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. Some isolated to
scattered storms on Friday over the eastern parts of the White
Mountains but wider coverage of storms is expected as we move
through the weekend and into next week. This monsoonal pattern
looks to hang around through much of the coming week so keep your
fingers crossed that everyone that wants to see rain will see some
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 16/00Z through Saturday 17/00Z...Widespread VFR
conditions persist through the TAF period with little to no cloud
cover. Southwest winds, 10-20 kts, continue through 02Z, weakening
thereafter. Expect similar conditions on Friday with southwest
winds, 10-20 kts, after 17Z and isolated -SHRA/-TSRA in the White
Mountains.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/00Z through Monday 19/00Z...Scattered
chances for -SHRA/-TSRA return on Saturday and are expected each
afternoon/evening. Outside of gusty and erratic outflow winds from
any storms, plan on westerly winds, 10-20 kts, each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Moisture will start to return
on Friday in the White Mountains and over most of northern Arizona
on Saturday. Expect minimum RH values between 15-30% each afternoon.
Winds will be out of the southwest 10-20 mph becoming light and
variable during overnight.

Sunday through Tuesday...Precipitation chances increase through
Monday...and then decrease some. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow
winds, look for south through west winds 5-15 mph. Above normal
temperatures will last through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff