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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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351 FXUS65 KFGZ 160333 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 833 PM MST Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday. Moisture starts to return to the region over the weekend with a more active Monsoon pattern as we head into the new week. && .UPDATE...Look for clear skies and relatively cool temperatures overnight as a dry air mass has moved over Arizona. The next chance for a decent upswing in thunderstorm activity will be on Saturday when monsoon moisture is forecast to return. The current forecast is in good shape with no update needed this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /413 PM MST/...An area of high pressure remains elongated over the southwestern states, keeping a zonal flow in place. Zonal flow is more westerly, which blocks moisture from finding its way into the area and also brings in warmer air. The high moves little through Friday with dry and warm conditions continuing. As we head into the weekend, the high shifts to the east with a ridge developing over New Mexico. This shift in the pattern will be more favorable for moisture to return to the region and to bring the Monsoon back to our area with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. Some isolated to scattered storms on Friday over the eastern parts of the White Mountains but wider coverage of storms is expected as we move through the weekend and into next week. This monsoonal pattern looks to hang around through much of the coming week so keep your fingers crossed that everyone that wants to see rain will see some rain. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/00Z through Saturday 17/00Z...Widespread VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with little to no cloud cover. Southwest winds, 10-20 kts, continue through 02Z, weakening thereafter. Expect similar conditions on Friday with southwest winds, 10-20 kts, after 17Z and isolated -SHRA/-TSRA in the White Mountains. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/00Z through Monday 19/00Z...Scattered chances for -SHRA/-TSRA return on Saturday and are expected each afternoon/evening. Outside of gusty and erratic outflow winds from any storms, plan on westerly winds, 10-20 kts, each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Moisture will start to return on Friday in the White Mountains and over most of northern Arizona on Saturday. Expect minimum RH values between 15-30% each afternoon. Winds will be out of the southwest 10-20 mph becoming light and variable during overnight. Sunday through Tuesday...Precipitation chances increase through Monday...and then decrease some. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow winds, look for south through west winds 5-15 mph. Above normal temperatures will last through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff