Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
485 FXUS63 KFGF 120256 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 956 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend into the start of the work week with the next precipitation chances arriving mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Cirrus clouds from the storms in SD are pushing into eastern North Dakota, but that is largely the only clouds cover in the sky currently. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Clouds are decreasing across the area as we lose the sun angle. There is a small chance for sprinkles along the SD border this evening, but no appreciable precipitation. Forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Shortwave trough will pass us by to the south and west with weak flow over our CWA and high pressure bringing another quiet night. A few more clouds in the south, along with a higher starting point this afternoon and slightly higher dew points, will keep temps from getting quite as low as last night but should still see some upper 40s in portions of MN. Tranquil weather and slowly warming temperatures with highs back into the 80s will occur Monday and Tuesday as upper ridging builds into the central CONUS and south to southeast winds across our area increase ahead of the next surface trough. The upper and surface troughs come out some time during the midweek period, moving into the Plains on Wednesday and off into the Midwest on Thursday. Some of the machine learning runs put some low probabilities for severe impacts into central ND bordering our western counties by Wednesday afternoon, and there is some good instability in some of the ensemble members, up around 1500-2000 J/kg. However, deep layer shear is less impressive, around 25 kts or so, so confidence is not high enough to start any kind of messaging at this point. There is some indication in the R and M climate of wetter than climo conditions with this system, but given recent dry trends and expected fast movement of the system, think flood potential is pretty low. Northwest flow aloft will bring a less active and slightly cooler trend for next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions through the period, with light and variable winds throughout. Sites in the RRV and west (GFK, FAR, and DVL) will get a more steady southerly wind Monday afternoon, but go back to variable and light before the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...AH