406
FXUS63 KFGF 112330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend into the start of the work week with the next
  precipitation chances arriving mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Clouds are decreasing across the area as we lose the sun angle.
There is a small chance for sprinkles along the SD border this
evening, but no appreciable precipitation. Forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Shortwave trough will pass us by to the south and west with weak
flow over our CWA and high pressure bringing another quiet
night. A few more clouds in the south, along with a higher
starting point this afternoon and slightly higher dew points,
will keep temps from getting quite as low as last night but
should still see some upper 40s in portions of MN. Tranquil
weather and slowly warming temperatures with highs back into the
80s will occur Monday and Tuesday as upper ridging builds into
the central CONUS and south to southeast winds across our area
increase ahead of the next surface trough.

The upper and surface troughs come out some time during the
midweek period, moving into the Plains on Wednesday and off into
the Midwest on Thursday. Some of the machine learning runs put
some low probabilities for severe impacts into central ND
bordering our western counties by Wednesday afternoon, and there
is some good instability in some of the ensemble members, up
around 1500-2000 J/kg. However, deep layer shear is less
impressive, around 25 kts or so, so confidence is not high
enough to start any kind of messaging at this point. There is
some indication in the R and M climate of wetter than climo
conditions with this system, but given recent dry trends and
expected fast movement of the system, think flood potential is
pretty low. Northwest flow aloft will bring a less active and
slightly cooler trend for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period, with light and variable winds
throughout. Sites in the RRV and west (GFK, FAR, and DVL) will
get a more steady southerly wind Monday afternoon, but go back
to variable and light before the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...AH