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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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793 FXUS63 KFGF 122336 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 636 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through Thursday. There is a less than 5 percent chance for isolated severe impacts in the western Devils Lake Basin Wednesday. Better chances (up to 15 to 20 percent) of locally heavy rainfall during the period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Afternoon cumulus will continue to erode and with high pressure in control we`ll see clear skies overnight with light winds. Some morning low lying ground fog is possible in the typical spots but impacts are not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Cumulus has grown tall enough to produce a few sprinkles just north of Upper Red Lake, and will continue to get some isolated weak convective activity in that area through sunset. Impacts are nil. Upper ridging builds into the Plains tonight, amplifying over the region tomorrow. One more quiet day is in store as highs Tuesday climb to around 80 degrees, with some increasing southeasterly winds as surface troughing develops to our west. For the system coming out Tuesday night into Thursday...there is decent agreement on the overall pattern but still some differences in the specifics. There should be good moisture advection ahead of the system with southeasterly winds, and a lead shortwave could bring some precipitation into our western counties as early as Tuesday night. Better chances as the main trough begins to move into the Western Plains Wednesday. Deterministic CAPE values have swung back towards unimpressive, but machine learning has some low probabilities of severe impacts and ensemble probabilities of thunder are up around 33 percent for Wednesday night for our northwestern counties. Think chances for any severe out in the far western Devils Lake Basin are less than 5 percent, but can`t completely rule it out. Some decent rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday as the trough comes eastward into the midwest. R and M climate as well as the ECMWF extreme forecast index show a wet signal going into Thursday, and there is a 15 to 20 percent chance for 2 inches or more over portions of our CWA during that 48 hour period. Not going to hoist a flood watch or anything, but may have to watch for some locally heavy rain as we head into the mid-week period. Friday into Monday, northwesterly flow aloft sets up as the main upper trough moves into the Great Lakes. There will be several weak embedded shortwaves, mainly around Sunday, although predictability is low. Temperatures should be fairly close to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Another VFR day is forecast tomorrow with SE winds developing after light and variable overnight. Speeds will be around 10 kts with a few afternoon gusts to 20kts in the valley and DVL possible. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JK DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JK