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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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152 FXUS63 KFGF 131050 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the far western FA and a marginal risk for locally heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Patchy ground fog has been showing up in the Bemidji area, where the winds are lightest and skies the clearest. Otherwise there are some patches of clouds along the Valley and westward with southeast winds around 5 mph. No changes are needed to the forecast at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Synopsis... The FA will be between surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and developing low pressure over the western High Plains today. Return flow will strengthen from the light flow that has been in place, with the best moisture return into the western and central Dakotas. The best 700mb forcing and 850mb warm advection will also occur to the west as well. These parameters shift eastward into this FA Wednesday into Wednesday night. The 700/500mb wave continues to linger over the Northern Plains Thursday into Thursday night (more so for the eastern FA), with ridging developing again by the weekend into early next week. ...Wednesday into Wednesday night... Overall not impressed with the severe weather potential for this period. Models continue to show pretty thick cloud cover moving into the FA late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly associated with remnant nocturnal convection further west. This would hold down heating and the available instability in this FA. The moisture return is good though, with surface dewpoints expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s (mainly Red River Valley and west) and precipitable water values rising above 1.50 inches. The upper jet looks pretty weak with 0-6km shear values also minimal. For those reasons, slow storm movement would result in localized heavy rain amounts. There are indications now that a closed 700mb low could track across northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota Wednesday night, with a decent 850mb jet focused on its eastern side. This would help to sustain storms and the good moisture feed into the area, it is just a matter of where exactly this may be (this FA or further south). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 There has been some patchy ground fog around KBJI, but it doesn`t appear widespread or very thick. Otherwise southeast winds will increase today, but they will mainly stay 5 to 15 mph. Left any mention of precipitation out of this set of TAFs, as the chances for anything (and only at KDVL) is very low. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon