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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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453 FXUS63 KFGF 172352 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke may impact sensitive groups within northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Isolated showers in northwest MN are lingering but showing weakening trends as we approach sunset this evening. Surface layer smoke is in place mainly in ND but with decoupling we could see smoke impacts increase. There is also a signal for patchy fog/ground fog development Sunday morning in some CAMs and with surface high centered over our CWA this seems reasonable. I went ahead and adjusted PoPs weather to reflect the showers through sunset and patchy fog Sunday morning, otherwise the forecast appears to be on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...Synopsis... Current satellite imagery shows cumulus blooming across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon. Some pop-up showers are appearing in northwestern Minnesota, but not expecting any severe or impactful QPF from these showers. As a low pressure system pushes into the northeastern United States, a 500mb ridge of high pressure will move east as well. This ridge will build into the northern High Plains into mid week, before flattening ever so slightly. This will allow shortwaves to pass through the area, giving us precipitation chances. Precipitation chances with these shortwaves looks to be on the lighter side in guidance, with 30 - 40% chance of QPF exceeding a quarter of an inch Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Once you look at probabilities for an inch or more, the chances go down to <20% for any of the precipitation chances next week. Uncertainty with these shortwaves still exists in terms of forcing and moisture availability as we get into the work week. ...Wildfire Smoke... According to the RAP-13, Smoke from Canadian wildfires will remain near the surface in at least small amounts through the night into Sunday. This could aggravate those who are more sensitive to smoke in the air, so if you are part of that group, use caution going outside this weekend. This should lessen into the beginning of the work week, and hopefully get cut off completely by the ridge changing our flow to more southerly/southeasterly. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Smoke aloft and at the surface will continue to impact TAF sites in eastern ND and northwest MN at times. Confidence is low however in how long and how widespread sub-VFR visibilities will be due to smoke though they could more commonly linger in the 3-6sm during the nighttime period as low levels stabilize. Patchy fog may also develop over parts of the region in the 09-14Z period also complicating visibility forecasts (and not being well resolved by models). Ultimately we will need to monitor short term trends tonight/Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will result in light and variable winds overnight for the region, with southeast winds 5-10kt eventually developing at KDVL Sunday afternoon. CU should also redevelop with peak mixing Sunday (generally in the 7000-10000 FT AGL range). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...DJR